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Feathers and Folly Blog
Terry Sohl
Research Physical Scientist
U.S. Geological Survey's Earth Resources Observation and
Science (EROS) Center
The
graphic at the left pretty much sums up my current research as a Research
Physical Scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey. I've been at USGS EROS
(Earth Resources Observation and Science) since 1993, and during that time, my
research has focused on the mapping, analysis, and projection of land-use and
land-cover change. When I started in 1993, I used satellite imagery to map
the land covers of the Earth's surface...for example, "Agriculture", Forest",
"Urban", "Wetland", etc. As my career progressed, I worked on a
project that looked at historical land-cover change for the United States.
Starting around 2006, I began a new line of research, trying to project what
future landscapes might look like. The graphic at the left is typical of
the types of projected land-cover maps that my team produces. This
is an animation for the Kansas City area, where red represents urban land
covers. Kansas City is the large red blob on the right edge. This
animation represents projected land-cover change for one scenario from 2006
through 2100. The legend to the right provides the legend for the
different land cover types being projected.
It is rather amazing, and somewhat disheartening, to think of projected future
population growth, and the resultant pressures that population growth is likely
to place on the Earth's natural resources. For example, the tan color on
the animation represents natural grasslands. Note that by 2100, most of
the natural grassland in this area has been replaced by crops, hay land, or
urban development. It doesn't paint a pretty picture for the region's
wildlife, or for other components of the natural ecosystem.
This is why I strongly believe in the research my group at USGS EROS is doing.
It's only by looking to the future that we can adequately plan for the potential
negative consequences of our footprint on the planet. I also believe
animations like the one shown above are wonderful for demonstrating to the
general public what our future may hold.
Below are some of the professional publications related to my work, if you'd like
more information on the type of work I do.
Sohl, T.L., Sleeter, B.M., Sayler, K.L.,
Bouchard, M.A., Reker, R.R., Bennett, S.L., Sleeter, R.R., Kanengieter, R.L.,
and Zhu, Z., 2012. Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios
for the Great Plains of the United States. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and
Environment 153: 1 - 15.
Sohl, T.L., and Sohl., L.B. 2012. Land-use Change in the Atlantic
Coastal Pine Barrens. Geographical Review: 102(2): 180-201.
Sohl, T.L., Sleeter, B.M., Zhu, Z., Sayler,
K.L., Bennett, S., Bouchard, M., Reker, R., Hawbaker, T., Wein, A., Liu, S.,
Kanengieter, R., and Acevedo, W., 2012. A land--use and land-cover
modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes.
Applie Geography 34: 111 - 124.
Sleeter, B.M.,
Sohl, T.L., Bouchard, M.A., Reker, R.R.,
Soulard, C.E., Acevedo, W., Griffith, G.E., Sleeter, R.R., Auch, R.F., Sayler,
K.L., Prisely, S, and Zhu, Z., 2012. Scenarios of land use and land cover
change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on
emission scenarios at ecoregional scales. Global Environmental Change
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.008
Sohl, T.L.,
Loveland, T.R., Sleeter, B.M., Sayler, K.L., and Barnes, C.A., 2010.
Addressing foundational elements of regional land-use change forecasting.
Landscape Ecology 25: 233-247.
Zhao, S., Liu,
S., Li, Z., and
Sohl, T.L.,
2010. Federal Land Management, Carbon Sequestration, and Climate Change in
the Southeastern U.S.: A Case Study with Fort Benning. Environmental
Science and Technology 44: 992-997.
Zhao, S., Liu, S.,
Li, Z., and Sohl, T.L., 2010. A spatial
resolution threshold of land cover in estimating terrestrial carbon
sequestration in four counties in Georgia and Alabama, USA. Biogeosciences
7: 71-80.
Sohl, T., and Sayler, K., 2008. Using the
FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States.
Ecological Modelling 219: 49-65.
Sohl., T.L., Sayler, K.L., Drummond, M.A., and
Loveland, T.R., 2007. The FORE-SCE model: A practical approach for
projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling. Journal of
Land Use Science 2(2): 103-126.
Stehman, S.V.,
Sohl, T.L., and Loveland, T.R. 2005. An
evaluation of sampling strategies to improve precision of estimates of gross
change in land use and land cover. International Journal of Remote Sensing
26(22): 4941-4957.
Sohl, T.L., Gallant, A.L., and Loveland, T.R.,
2004. The characteristics and interpretability of land surface change and
implications for project design. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote
Sensing 70(4): 439-448.
Gallant,
A.L., Loveland, T.R., Sohl, T.L., and Napton,
D.E., 2004. Using an Ecoregion Framework to Analyze Land-cover and
Land-use Dynamics. Environmental Management 34(Supl. 1): S89-S110.
Stehman, S.V.,
Sohl, T.L., and Loveland, T.R., 2003.
Statistical sampling to characterize recent United States land-cover change.
Remote Sensing of Environment 86: 517-529.
Griffith, J.A.,
Stehman, S.V., Sohl, T.L., and Loveland, T.R.,
2003. Detecting trends in landscape pattern metrics over a 20-year period
using a sampling-basd monitoring programme. International Journal of
Remote Sensing 24(1): 175-181.
Loveland, T.R.,
Sohl, T.L., Stehman, S.V., Gallant, A.L.,
Sayler, K.L., and Napton, D.E., 2002. A strategy for estimating the rates
of recent United States land-cover changes. Photogrammetric Engineering
and Remote Sensing 68(10): 1091-1099.
Sohl, T.L., Loveland, T.R., Sayler, K.L.,
Gallant, A.L., Auch, R., and Napton, D.E., 2000. The Land Cover Trends
Project: A strategy for monitoring land cover change at a national scale.
IGARSS Conference, Lincoln, Nebraska.
Sohl, T.L., 1999. Change Analysis in the
United Arab Emirates: An Investigation of Techniques. Photogrammetric
Engineering and Remote Sensing 65(4): 475-484.
Vogelmann, J.E.,
Sohl, T,L,, and Howard, S.M., 1998.
Regional Characterization of Land Cover using Multiple Sources of Data.
Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 64(1): 45-57.
Vogelmann, J.E.,
Sohl, T.L., Campbell, P.V., and Shaw, D.M.,
1998. Regional land cover characterization using Landsat Thematic Mapper
data and ancillary data sources. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
51: 415-428.
Sohl, T.L., and Dwyer, J.L., 1996. North American landscape
characterization project: The production of a continental scale three-decade
Landsat data set. GeoCarto International 13(3): 43-51.
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