Tag Archives: science

Website – USGS EROS Land-cover Modeling

FORE-SCE Example

Finally. About 8 years after starting work on our own modeling framework and using it to project the Earth's land-cover out into the future, we have our own, official, dedicated USGS website.

Finally.  A website. 

USGS Land-Cover Modeling Website

This will be my 20th year working at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.  OK…USGS EROS for short.  For the first 12 or so years, I primarily worked on the mapping of land cover (what’s on the surface of the Earth, such as “agriculture”, “urban”, Forest”, “wetland”, etc.), and analyzing land-use change, using satellite imagery.  About 8 years ago, we started work on taking the concept forward into the future, projecting what the landscape of the Earth will look like at some future date.  Over the years, I led the development of a new land-cover modeling framework, the “FORE-SCE” model (FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change).  FORE-SCE?  Get it?  We’re “FORE-SCE-ing” the future!!

It’s been fun over the last 8 years, and our modeling work has gotten quite a bit of attention.  However, that attention has all come from publications in the literature.  We haven’t had a website!  Until yesterday, when we finally had an official USGS website go active for the modeling work.

USGS Land-cover Modeling Website

Pretty simple so far, but it gives you an idea of what we do, has a few little tools to show “before” and “after” maps of land-cover, and lets you download some of our land-cover projection data that we’ve produced.  Excited to FINALLY have a web presence, a presence I hope to expand in the coming years, particularly with more interactive tools for data exploration and analysis.

Sequestration Madness

OK, I take it back.  A few weeks ago, I said “let sequestration happen”.  My logic…there’s no way D.C. politicians are EVER going to agree to cut the military by nearly 10%, and I’m willing to survive the pain of the other cuts, if we start to cut our ridiculous military spending.  My own agency, as all others funded by “discretionary” spending, would also take a big cut.  If it were all done wisely (don’t laugh), I do think there’s “fat” that can be trimmed from a lot of places in government.  Hence, my previous post that sequestration may not be such a bad thing.

I was wrong.

For one, I foolishly thought that sequestration could be done “wisely”.  Now that we are 3 days from sequestration becoming a reality, it’s becoming quite obvious how poorly prepared Federal agencies are to address the cuts.  Warnings of up to 22 days of furloughs are going out to Federal employees.  First…what does this solve?  If budgets are indeed cut by 8% or so, what does a furlough solve?  You’re cutting costs temporarily, but what happens at the start of the new fiscal year?  You still have a lowered budget, and are facing the same problem.  Are you going to furlough Federal employees one day a week for all of NEXT year as well?  If cuts are enacted, stop-gap measures such as cutting travel, cutting ALL scientific conference attendance (Ugh…gotta love cutting scientists off from contact with their colleagues or the public), and an ill-thought out furlough solve NOTHING for the long-term. 

DC politicians are continually kicking the can down the road instead of dealing with budget deficits.  It seems Federal agencies are following the same line of thinking, trying to patch together a last-minute set of short-term fixes to deal with what could end up being a permanent budget cut. 

Trying to manage a science project right now in the Federal government?  Next to impossible, given the complete uncertainty as to budgets or staffing.  Government CAN be very efficient and can provide wonderful services to the American people…if only the damn politicians would get out-of-the-way.

Landsat Launch Success! Incredible View!

Landsat 8, separating from the rocket

The view from the Atlas rocket, towards the just released Landsat 8 satellite. Incredible view, and timing, with the sun appearing behind the "crescent Earth" just moments after satellite separation. Click for a larger view.

Everyone at USGS EROS (Earth Resource Observation and Science) Center had been looking forward to today for a long time…years in fact.  With the Landsat 5 satellite recently decommissioned after an incredible 28 year run…with Landsat 6 somewhere at the bottom of the Pacific, and with Landsat 7 operating with a crippled instrument, USGS EROS, and Earth Science in general, NEEDED a successful Landsat 8 launch.   Today, we got that successful launch.

The “Landsat Data Continuity Mission”, soon to be dubbed “Landsat 8″ once NASA transitions satellite control to the USGS, launched today from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.  Everything has gone flawlessly so far.  No delays in the countdown, great weather, and everything gone perfectly during launch.

Three “goosebump” moments for me today…

1) The final “OK”s from the mission engineers.  One by one, they went through a check of all systems, with each engineer replying with a “Check!!”.  That’s when you knew that after years of planning, you only had a few minutes before actual launch.

2) Actual launch, with multiple views showing the launch from a distance, camera on the rocket, etc.

3) My favorite moment, pictured above…separation of the satellite from the rocket.  The NASA announcer talked about the quiet and tension in the room in the few minutes leading up to this, as satellite separation can be a tricky stage.  Not only does it go flawlessly, but the views from the camera on the rocket, looking towards the satellite as it slowly moves away, were just stunning.  It separated somewhere over Europe, where it was night.  All you could see of the earth was a bright sliver in the distance, like a sliver of a crescent moon.  Then just about 15 seconds after separation, you seen the sun come out from behind the crescent, with the satellite and rocket in the foreground.

AMAZING.  GREAT day for USGS EROS!  Now we just have to hope the satellite checks out as flawlessly as the launch!!

Landsat Satellite Launch – Monday, mid-Day

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

A huge day for my USGS center tomorrow, with the launch of the Landsat 8 mission.

A very big day at work tomorrow (Monday).  I work at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.  We house the world’s largest collection of satellite imagery, providing both data and the science to support the use of the data.  USGS EROS was established 40 years ago, with a carefully selected site in the central part of the nation, to facilitate collection of satellite imagery. 

In 1972, the first “Landsat” satellite was launched.  It marked a milestone in environmental monitoring and assessment, as for the first time, synoptic, broad-scale, consistent observations of the Earth’s surface were available.  Several subsequent Landsat missions have followed, with one mission (Landsat 5) finally ending recently after a remarkable 28 years of continuous data collection (not bad for what was thought to be a 5-year lifespan at most).  Landsat 6, launched in the early 1990s, never achieved orbit and is currently at “home” somewhere at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean.  Landsat 7, a flagship mission for USGS EROS, experienced sensor problems a few years ago, and now collects only partially degraded imagery. 

Tomorrow, Monday, February 11th, at around noon central time, the Landsat Data Continuity Mission lifts off from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.  The mission will officially be termed Landsat 8 after a successful launch and a transition of control t0 USGS.  The mission is a partnership between NASA and USGS, with NASA leading the design, construction, and launch of the satellite.  We at USGS control the mission after launch, collect the data from the satellite, and distribute it to the public.

A big day, not just for USGS EROS, but for Earth Science.  Landsat imagery have been used for countless different applications over the years, and with Landsat 8, we’ll be able to provide the data and science for years to come.  If you get a chance, check out the launch tomorrow on NASA TV.

Why “reality-challenged” Republicans are destined to repeat 2012

Six days after the election, and Republicans are still trying to figure out what went wrong.  From a liberal perspective, it’s simultaneously entertaining, disturbing, and rather pathetic to see Republicans continue to grasp at straws, making up a number of excuses for the election that are so detached from reality that I’m convinced the 2012 election will be repeated many times over, until Republicans join the same world the rest of us are living in.

The  Washington Post ran one such story today, describing bewildered Republican campaign workers and they’re coping (or not coping)with the loss. To far too many clueless Repubs, it’s not just an election loss, it’s practically a sign of the apocalypse, the start of America’s impending doom.  From the Washington Post story, one reaction for losing Colorado was worded as follows:

  • “Colorado? Who the heck lives in Colorado? Do they want drugs, dependence, and indulgence? Don’t they remember what this country is about?”

This seems to be one of the ways that “reality-challenged” Republicans are coping with their election disaster…labeling all Americans who voted for Obama as lazy, corrupt people who want government to take care of them.  The idiot-master himself, Bill O’Reilly, said the people who voted for Obama voted for him simply because they “want stuff”, as if the entire electorate who voted for Obama are welfare recipients who live off all those fine, upstanding, hard-working Republicans.  The same line of thinking has been picked up by a vast array of Republican pundits, politicians, and Republican voters. 

I’m sorry, Republicans, but YOUR PARTY is the one that is completely out of touch with American values.  Americans spoke last Tuesday, and Americans voted for what America is REALLY all about.  Americans voted for EQUALITY, where your treatment under the law isn’t dictated by race, sexual orientation, or religion.   Americans voted for COMPASSION, where access to medical treatment isn’t dictated by the size of your bank account.  Americans voted for FAIRNESS, where the most fortunate and richest of Americans are asked to contribute their fair share to society, and help the less fortunate.  America chose REASON, where science and fact, not ideology or religion, are the basis for how we live and how we govern.  Americans voted for EMPATHY, where those Americans most in need of assistance are supported by their fellow citizens.

The Republican fantasy world they’ve been living in the last 15 years or so?  In the Republican version of America, HATE and INTOLERANCE are used as tools to intimidate and to govern.  For reality-challenged Republicans, America is a place where COOPERATION and COMPROMISE are dirty words, where every American must accept Republican ideology.  For reality-challenged Republicans, GREED is the overarching driving force of how we live and how we govern, where the acquisition of personal wealth is more important than even the world we leave behind for our children.  For reality-challenged Republicans, SELFISHNESS is what drives our behavior, where we would rather let the uninsured or poor die and suffer, rather than lend a helping hand.

Americans spoke on Tuesday, and Americans chose to RESPECT AND HONOR what America stands for.  The very fact that Republicans are bewildered by the election speaks for how very small the Republican party has become.  Given the reaction of Republican pundits, politicians, and voters over the last week, it should be painfully obvious why Republicans have only ONCE won the popular vote for president over the last 20 years.  As a liberal, even a cynical liberal, the election was affirmation that America isn’t lost, that we are headed in the right direction.  As a liberal, the election, the voice of the people, gives me hope.

For Republicans who feel the election is a sign of America’s doom? Your bewilderment, your disillusionment, and your bitterness are proof that the fate of your party in 2012 is bound to be repeated.  Until your party sheds the ideological “leadership” provided from the likes of Ryan, McConnell, O’Reilly, Limbaugh, and Rove, until your party embraces true American ideals, until your party FACES REALITY, 2012 will be a recurring nightmare for Republicans.

Black, Muslim, Non-citizen, Socialist President Re-elected!!!

Obama - 2012In a shocking development, the United States of America re-elected a black, Muslim, non-citizen, socialist president.  Barack Hussein Obama, a communist born in Kenya, has spent the last four years on an American “Apology” tour, while simultaneously plotting to destroy American’s religious freedoms, secretly installing Islamic Shariah Law, and moving to take away guns from all Americans. The ONLY reason Obama, a known lizard man who is also the AntiChrist, won, is because of 1) Media Bias 2) Vote Fraud 3) Hurricane Sandy 4) Alien influences.

So…what do you think?  I think I could probably post the paragraph above on a host of right-wing websites, and get a lot of “serious” discussion.  BACK TO REALITY, REPUBLICANS!!! Guess what? The polls were (gasp!) RIGHT!!  The mainstream media was (gasp!) RIGHT!! Americans (gasp!!) PREFER a leader who tells the truth!  Shocking!!!

The rational folks who actually looked at the evidence, like Nate Silver, have been proven correct.  Were there any states missed by Silver?   It looks like 332 will be the magic number.  Look at Silver’s prediction site, and you’ll see the most predicted outcome was 332 electoral votes (look at his histogram of potential outcomes).  In the meantime, right-wing “pundits” such as Dick Morris, who predicted a Romney landslide, were very predictably proven to be nothing more than right-wing shills. 

I have high hopes that this election will mark an end to the Republican Party as it currently exists.  I hope it results in a reformed Republican Party, where FACT, where SCIENCE play an important role.  I have no problem with those with well-informed opinions that are different than mine, if they are indeed based on fact, on science where applicable.  That’s obviously NOT today’s Republican party, where even simple POLLS are doubted, where climate change and evolution are a sham.  I hope this election marks the end of the right-wing takeover of the Republican party.  I hope it marks the end of politics dictated by HATE and INTOLERANCE.

Hey, I can dream.  But on a night like tonight (OK, it’s now officially morning I guess)…even a cynic like me can believe in the basic goodness of Americans.  Congrats, Mr. Obama!  America has spoken, and they have, perhaps, SLIGHTLY lessened my overall cynicism regarding the human race.  :-)

Scum of the Week – Paul Broun

Paul Broun

Can't we have a simple IQ test before allowing idiots like Paul Broun to run for office?

And people wonder why science in the United States is on the decline…

Republican (did I even need to say that?) Congressman Paul Broun was shown in a video this week, saying “All that stuff I was taught about evolution, embryology, the Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell“.  He goes on to say that the ”earth is but 9,000 years old“.  It’s bad enough that a sitting U.S. Congressman is so incredibly stupid that he would talk like this.  One would HOPE that the political leaders in the U.S. weren’t complete idiots (OK…take a moment and collect yourself until you stop laughing, since obviously many of them are dumber than a stick).

But what’s absolutely dangerous is that this idiot is on the House Committee for Science, Space, and Technology.  A sitting congressman who has a large say in the direction of science and technology policy and funding in the U.S., and he’s a bible-thumpin’ wacko who believes the earth is 9,000 years old.

That should scare the hell out of people.  It’s already been abundantly clear in recent years that conservatives have completely abandoned logic, have completely abandoned science, and frankly, have completely abandoned sanity.

Rep. Broun…you are the recipient of a WELL deserved “Scum of the week” award.

Legislating away climate change

Earth on Fire

Anthropogenic effects on climate change? GONE!! Legislated away by the BRILLIANT (as always) Republicans in the North Carolina legislature. WHY in the hell didn't we think of doing this a long time ago??!!?

I don’t know whether to laugh, or cry.  Sometimes the complete idiocy (and greed) of human beings initiates both reactions at the same time.  Take the case of North Carolina law makers this week…

If you haven’t seen it, take the time to watch Stephen Colbert’s slant to this story.  It seems that a North Carolina coastal economic development group isn’t happy with scientists.  Darn pesky scientists…they had the GALL to predict that sea level rise would be greater than 3 feet by 2100.  It makes it a LOT harder to sell coastal real estate or convince companies to locate on the North Carolina coast, when all the evidence and science in the world points to that land being underwater in 50 or so years.

So…the economic development group has partnered with Republican (of course!) lawmakers in the state to basically outlaw science!!  The businesspeople and Republican lawmakers simply are saying that scientists are wrong, and that you should ONLY look at what’s happened in the past, to predict future climate change.  None of this fretting over CO2 levels that just reached 400 ppm!!  No fretting about accelerating warming in the polar regions that will melt ice like butter in a blast furnace!! Nah….it’s the REAL ESTATE industry that REALLY knows climate science!!!

So, they’re crafting legislation that would effectively legislate away climate change science!  They would make it North Carolina LAW that any climate projections affecting policy in the state would assume that sea-level rise will simply occur at historical levels, and won’t accelerate as global warming ramps up. 

Simple! Problem solved!  We scientist…SO, so silly, worrying about gathering evidence, analyzing the data, and spitting out facts and figures.  All we really need to do is legislate science away!  Think of the possibilities!  What if the Yellowstone caldera should get frisky and threaten to erupt again?  No need for scientists to study it…just pass a law outlawing the volcano from erupting!  Giant asteroid headed on a collision course with earth?  No problem!! Just legislate it away!!

Unbelievable.  It DOES perfectly represent what the Republican Party represents, however.  After all, we CAN’T have science interfere with real estate and business! If science is butting heads with business interests, is there ever ANY doubt on which side of the argument Republicans will land?   We’ve seen this story a hundred times in other forms…fracking and polluting water supplies, endangered species habitat vs. development, air quality vs. power company lobbyists…it’s the same story every time.  What’s so pathetic is that I’m sure Republican VOTERS in North Carolina are swallowing this hook, line, and sinker, and APPLAUDING their hillbilly legislators for this bold move.

To laugh?  Or to cry?  With each move Republicans make like this, it’s getting harder and harder to laugh about it.

Just the facts – Gun Ownership

Just the facts

Just the facts. Just the evidence, and science. In other words...something most Americans are very good at ignoring.

It’s been quite laughable what people have been trying to post this week, once some gun nuts took objection to an old post.  The common characteristics of the attempted posts were:

1) Inability to communicate.  My god.  I’m insulated from it a bit given where I work.  A scientist HAS to be able to write well, as you certainly won’t get published if you aren’t a capable writer.  However, I always knew that basic writing was a skill lost on most Americans.  If you try to post something, I’m not going to take your arguments seriously if you’re incapable of writing a coherent sentence, or are incapable of writing a sentence without 3 misspellings. 

2) Vulgarity - Sorry folks, if you start a post by calling me an asshole (or worse)…it isn’t going to be posted.  The automatic filtering alone will make sure that those posts are directed right to the trash bin.

3) Complete rejection of reality.   My god it’s scary what people believe. Looked through the trash bin, and saw all kinds of wonderful attempted posts about citizens with guns being more important than police, that more people are saved by civilians with guns than are killed, etc.   It’s scary to read posts from people who think of THEMSELVES as America’s TRUE policemen (an EXACT phrase used by one guy…god that’s scary).  I guess it goes back to a previous post of mine, about peope’s insecurity and carrying guns as a way to pump up their ego or feelings of self-worth. 

Fortunately, as with most phenomena, you CAN actually take a scientific approach to the issue, and look at the data.  The data are pretty damned clear:

1) Kellermann, A., and Reay, D.T., 1986. “Protection or peril? An analysis of firearm-related deaths in the home.”  New England Journal of Medicine 314(24): 1557-1560. This research found that a homeowner with a gun is 43 times more likely to kill a FAMILY member, than a home intruder.

2) Kellerman, A., Rivara, F.P., Rushforth, N.B., Banton, J.G., Reay, D.T., Francisco, J.T., Locci, A.B., Prodzinski, J., Hackman, B.B., and Somes, G., 1993. “Gun ownership as a risk factor for homicide in the home.” New England Journal of Medicine 329: 1084-1091.   Households owning guns are three times as likely to be a victim of homicide as non gun owners

3) Miller, M., Hemenway, D., and Zarael, D., 2007.  State-level homicide victimization rates in the U.S. in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership., 2001-2003.  Soc. Sci. Med. 64(3): 656-664.  This study found that homicide rates, including homicide of children, were directly correlated to regions with higher proportions of home gun ownership.  The top 25% of states with highest gun ownership had homicide rates 114% higher than the states with lowest gun ownership. 

As this last study ponts out…it’s simply easier for criminals to obtain guns in areas where more guns are present.   One study found 90% of guns used for crime were obtained illegally.  Gun proponents thus say criminals are “going to get guns anyway”, so they too need legal means of obtaining guns to “defend” themselves.  However, these and other studies note the direct correlation between gun availability/ownership, and violent crime.  In areas where guns are more easily obtained through legal means, there are also more guns available illegally, and crime rates are much higher.

The facts are pretty straightforward.  But those on the right seem little interested in fact nowadays, be it gun owners…global warming denialists…Obama “birthers”…etc.   

And none of this even addresses the wacko “Right to Carry” groups who have been filling up my trash bin.  Consider this research:

Branas, C.C., Richmand, T.S., Culhane, D.P., Ten Have, T.R., and Wiebe., D.J., 2009.  “Investigating the link between gun possession and gun assault”. American Journal of Public Health 99(11): 2034-2040. – This study found that those carrying a gun are FAR likelier to be both shot, and killed, than unarmed crime victims.  People who carry are 4.5 times as likely to be shot compared to unarmed crime victims.  As Branas notes, it may be the “type of people” who carry firearms, but it also is likely due to the “sense of empowerment” gun carriers have.   For those wackos who think they can carry a gun and use it defend themselves (seemingly EVERY wacko who tried to post fits this category), the study also notes that in the cases where a gun-carrying victim has some chance to defend themselves, they are even MORE likely to be shot…5.5 times as likely to be shot than an unarmed victim.

Yes, even this study notes that there are some successful defensive gun uses each year, but they note “the probability of success may be low for civilian gun users”.  The study notes that you’re in far MORE danger when you carry, than if you don’t.

Just the facts!  Scientific, peer-reviewed literature!!  Not some wacko gun nut sending me a profane email, with a link to a pro-gun website touting all the “benefits” of carrying  a gun.  And you wonder why your posts don’t make it past the trash bin?

Santorum, Science, and Satan

Satan, Academia, and Global Warming

According to Rick Santorum, Satan "took over" academia "long ago". He also says he's the one who is "pro-science". You know, like the science of the Devil actually being the cause of global warming.

Yes, I know this is about the 29th straight post commenting on Rick Santorum.  But c’mon…the man is a walking disaster, and it’s SO easy to poke fun at him.  It’s also damned scary that this man is getting anything close to a sniff of the presidency of the United States.  You KNOW you’re a wacko if Rush Limbaugh is worried about your wackiness, and is warning you to tone it down.

Limbaugh came out with concern about Santorum’s ability to address some of the wackier comments he’s made in his recent past.  In those comments from 2008, Santorum commented on “Satan’s” war on America.  In a speech that sets a standard of wackiness that is amazing even for Santorum, he states that “Satan” has been the “most and first successful” in taking over academia, going on to say that academia fell to Satan “long ago.”

Interesting comment from someone who might be the flag-bearer for the GOP, when just this week, he came out and said that it’s Democrats who are “anti-science”, while Santorum isn’t.   

Sigh. It’s quite depressing to hear the Santorum revelations.  As a scientist, as someone with a strong academic background, I’m a little disappointed to know that all I learned in college was really just Satan spouting off.  I’m a little disappointed to hear that all of the work on climate change that we’ve done at USGS, and indeed within my current project, is one big lie perpetuated by Satan himself.  What are the implications for a liberal, government scientist who contributes to the science of climate change?

I’m going to hell, that much is obvious.  I really had no chance, with both academia, and my chosen profession, seemingly taken over by Satan.  I just take heart that my young son and any future grandchildren have someone as “wise” as Rick Santorum to lead us from the Devil’s influence.