Tag Archives: Romney

Why “reality-challenged” Republicans are destined to repeat 2012

Six days after the election, and Republicans are still trying to figure out what went wrong.  From a liberal perspective, it’s simultaneously entertaining, disturbing, and rather pathetic to see Republicans continue to grasp at straws, making up a number of excuses for the election that are so detached from reality that I’m convinced the 2012 election will be repeated many times over, until Republicans join the same world the rest of us are living in.

The  Washington Post ran one such story today, describing bewildered Republican campaign workers and they’re coping (or not coping)with the loss. To far too many clueless Repubs, it’s not just an election loss, it’s practically a sign of the apocalypse, the start of America’s impending doom.  From the Washington Post story, one reaction for losing Colorado was worded as follows:

  • “Colorado? Who the heck lives in Colorado? Do they want drugs, dependence, and indulgence? Don’t they remember what this country is about?”

This seems to be one of the ways that “reality-challenged” Republicans are coping with their election disaster…labeling all Americans who voted for Obama as lazy, corrupt people who want government to take care of them.  The idiot-master himself, Bill O’Reilly, said the people who voted for Obama voted for him simply because they “want stuff”, as if the entire electorate who voted for Obama are welfare recipients who live off all those fine, upstanding, hard-working Republicans.  The same line of thinking has been picked up by a vast array of Republican pundits, politicians, and Republican voters. 

I’m sorry, Republicans, but YOUR PARTY is the one that is completely out of touch with American values.  Americans spoke last Tuesday, and Americans voted for what America is REALLY all about.  Americans voted for EQUALITY, where your treatment under the law isn’t dictated by race, sexual orientation, or religion.   Americans voted for COMPASSION, where access to medical treatment isn’t dictated by the size of your bank account.  Americans voted for FAIRNESS, where the most fortunate and richest of Americans are asked to contribute their fair share to society, and help the less fortunate.  America chose REASON, where science and fact, not ideology or religion, are the basis for how we live and how we govern.  Americans voted for EMPATHY, where those Americans most in need of assistance are supported by their fellow citizens.

The Republican fantasy world they’ve been living in the last 15 years or so?  In the Republican version of America, HATE and INTOLERANCE are used as tools to intimidate and to govern.  For reality-challenged Republicans, America is a place where COOPERATION and COMPROMISE are dirty words, where every American must accept Republican ideology.  For reality-challenged Republicans, GREED is the overarching driving force of how we live and how we govern, where the acquisition of personal wealth is more important than even the world we leave behind for our children.  For reality-challenged Republicans, SELFISHNESS is what drives our behavior, where we would rather let the uninsured or poor die and suffer, rather than lend a helping hand.

Americans spoke on Tuesday, and Americans chose to RESPECT AND HONOR what America stands for.  The very fact that Republicans are bewildered by the election speaks for how very small the Republican party has become.  Given the reaction of Republican pundits, politicians, and voters over the last week, it should be painfully obvious why Republicans have only ONCE won the popular vote for president over the last 20 years.  As a liberal, even a cynical liberal, the election was affirmation that America isn’t lost, that we are headed in the right direction.  As a liberal, the election, the voice of the people, gives me hope.

For Republicans who feel the election is a sign of America’s doom? Your bewilderment, your disillusionment, and your bitterness are proof that the fate of your party in 2012 is bound to be repeated.  Until your party sheds the ideological “leadership” provided from the likes of Ryan, McConnell, O’Reilly, Limbaugh, and Rove, until your party embraces true American ideals, until your party FACES REALITY, 2012 will be a recurring nightmare for Republicans.

Black, Muslim, Non-citizen, Socialist President Re-elected!!!

Obama - 2012In a shocking development, the United States of America re-elected a black, Muslim, non-citizen, socialist president.  Barack Hussein Obama, a communist born in Kenya, has spent the last four years on an American “Apology” tour, while simultaneously plotting to destroy American’s religious freedoms, secretly installing Islamic Shariah Law, and moving to take away guns from all Americans. The ONLY reason Obama, a known lizard man who is also the AntiChrist, won, is because of 1) Media Bias 2) Vote Fraud 3) Hurricane Sandy 4) Alien influences.

So…what do you think?  I think I could probably post the paragraph above on a host of right-wing websites, and get a lot of “serious” discussion.  BACK TO REALITY, REPUBLICANS!!! Guess what? The polls were (gasp!) RIGHT!!  The mainstream media was (gasp!) RIGHT!! Americans (gasp!!) PREFER a leader who tells the truth!  Shocking!!!

The rational folks who actually looked at the evidence, like Nate Silver, have been proven correct.  Were there any states missed by Silver?   It looks like 332 will be the magic number.  Look at Silver’s prediction site, and you’ll see the most predicted outcome was 332 electoral votes (look at his histogram of potential outcomes).  In the meantime, right-wing “pundits” such as Dick Morris, who predicted a Romney landslide, were very predictably proven to be nothing more than right-wing shills. 

I have high hopes that this election will mark an end to the Republican Party as it currently exists.  I hope it results in a reformed Republican Party, where FACT, where SCIENCE play an important role.  I have no problem with those with well-informed opinions that are different than mine, if they are indeed based on fact, on science where applicable.  That’s obviously NOT today’s Republican party, where even simple POLLS are doubted, where climate change and evolution are a sham.  I hope this election marks the end of the right-wing takeover of the Republican party.  I hope it marks the end of politics dictated by HATE and INTOLERANCE.

Hey, I can dream.  But on a night like tonight (OK, it’s now officially morning I guess)…even a cynic like me can believe in the basic goodness of Americans.  Congrats, Mr. Obama!  America has spoken, and they have, perhaps, SLIGHTLY lessened my overall cynicism regarding the human race.  :-)

FACT! STATISTICS!! TRUTH!!! OBBBBBAAAAAMMMMMAAAA!!!

It’s 8:45 here in South Dakota.  And IT…IS…OVER!!!

I AM CALLING IT!!!

Wisconsin!  Pennsylvania!!  New Hampshire!!  Michigan!  Iowa!!  Nevada! Colorado!!!  FLORIDA, FOR GOD’S SAKE!!!  All of these states are already called, or all of these states are ones where InTrade has Obama at 85%+ chance of winning!!

WELL over 300 Electoral votes headed Obama’s way!! 

FOUR…MORE….YEARS!!  With a GREAT looking night for Democrats in the Senate as well!!!!

Election Day! Final odds, and why Obama has won

Election Day

Last election day odds, with all indicators continuing to move up for Obama. Click for a larger view.

From the five sites I’ve been looking at, the final numbers of Obama’s election chances.  With national polls nearly all showing a Obama lead, and with Obama expanding leads in key swing states, all the sites went up for Obama over the last 24 hours.  InTrade continues to be the lowest one, but will be the one I’ll likely be following as the day goes on.  As exit polls are released, as turnout numbers are more understood, InTrade will be moving rather quickly.  You’ll likely see a big move on InTrade tonight long before any “calls” have been made by the pundits or news coverage.

With election day comes what I think will be an indictment of what the Republican party has become, and an indictment of how they’ve conducted this election.  By any historical measure, Obama should be losing this election.  If Obama is re-elected, he will be the president elected with the highest unemployment rate since Roosevelt. Just a fact…I myself think that given the economic hole he inherited, and compared to the recovery (or lack thereof) in Europe and elsewhere, the U.S. recovery has been more than adequate.  Despite the economic woes…Obama WILL win tonight.

Why is he defying history and winning?  Look no further than what the Republican party has become.  This is now 2 presidential elections in a row where relatively moderate Republican candidates have been forced to become something they’re not…hard-core, right-wing, “severely” conservative candidates.  In both cases, John McCain and Mitt Romney used to be men I at least respected, although I didn’t always agree with their views.  McCain especially WAS indeed a “maverick”, adopting views that conflicted with Republican party stances.  However, starting in the primaries, McCain had to move to the right to appease the ideologues controlling the puppet strings in the Republican party.  Immigration?  A one-time champion of immigration reform had to toughen his stance, as he had to do on many issues.  The end result of 2008 was a John McCain who had been battered and bruised, whose reputation as a maverick evaporated.  The John McCain of 2008 to 2012 became a bitter man, a former maverick turned spokesman for the far right.  It’s remarkable to look at the McCain prior to his presidential run, and the man he’s become after.

I don’t think Mitt Romney was ever as much of a “maverick” as John McCain, but as a Republican governor in a very blue state, he was relatively moderate on many issues.  Despite Romney’s running away from his own health care accomplishments in Massachusetts, his health care reform law WAS a blueprint for national health-care reform, with many of ObamaCare’s components relatively similar to Romney’s Massachusetts plan.  Much like McCain, however, Romney had to move far to the right during the primaries.  Running against much more ideologically conservative candidates such as Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry, Romney suddenly became “severely” conservative.  Romney, like all the other candidates, were forced to verbalize agreement with the most conservative, and ridiculous, of platforms, such as agreeing that even $1 of tax increases for every $10 of spending cuts was unacceptable.  The “severely” conservative Romney was never comfortable with the new persona.  Given the complete nitwits he was running against for the nomination, it took surprisingly long for him to dispatch the likes of a Rick Santorum and win the nomination.  For several months after winning the nomination, all the way through the Republican convention, “severely” conservative Mitt continued to play the role as the ideological leader of the 21st century caricature of the Republican Party.

What was obvious though…it wasn’t working.  Even during the summer, when it was less apparent that the economy is picking up steam, Romney struggled with his message, and struggled in the polls against Obama.  It wasn’t until the Denver debate that a glimmer of hope appeared for Romney, and it was because Romney suddenly jolted back towards the center, with more moderate stances on many issues. Throughout the last month, the October version of Romney (one of many versions) agreed with Obama’s views on many policies, particularly foreign policy.  The October version of Romney was more true to his political past, with a more pragmatic, centrist viewpoint on some issues.  With the October version of Romney came “Ro-mentum” and a reversal of poll numbers moving towards Romney.  Elated Republicans saw it as a sign that Romney would indeed win.

The first debate bounce was short-lived.  Republican operatives, pundits, and “news” sources like Fox continued to report on “Ro-mentum”, with some Republican operatives in the last week even proclaiming a large Romney electoral college win.  In the meantime, however, the objective evidence showed that “Ro-mentum” lasted just a week or two, before polls again started to consistently move in Obama’s favor.  Romney simply wasn’t an ideologue, with many pundits discussing Romney as the least ideological candidate in many years.  Romney focus has always been more on WINNING the job, rather than focusing on what he’d do once elected.  Tax cuts!  Shrinking government!  Strengthening the military!  All while magically balancing the budget!!  The general “goals” were there, but Romney/Ryan constantly refused to reveal any specifics as to how they would accomplish their miraculous goals.  Despite a more moderate Romney appearing in October, his constant flip-flopping on issues registered doubt among voters, who again began to move towards Obama.  In the last 2 weeks of the campaign, an ever-more desperate Romney campaign turned to a campaign focused on deception, where Obama’s bailout of the auto industry somehow became a negative rather than a positive for states like Ohio and Michigan.  Given the popularity of the auto bailout in the upper Midwest, Romney was always going to have a hard time winning Ohio.  His strategy of trying to scare Ohio voters has blown up in his face, with condemnation of the Romney/Ryan campaign ads almost universal (outside of Fox News).

The October Romney has proven to be just as weak a candidate as the “severely conservative” Romney of the primaries.   It’s been incredibly difficult for voters to understand just what he stands for, and his reputation is likely forever damaged from the deceptive, negative campaign he’s turned to in the last few weeks.

Just a week or two ago, Republican pundits were giddy over “Ro-mentum” and the coming Romney presidency.  “Landslide” was even a term uttered by some misguided Republican operatives.  The polls?  Irrelevant!!  They had “Ro-mentum”!   According to  Republicans, the Romney election would be a vindication of the Republican platform and campaign strategy, and an indictment of not just Obama’s policies and first term, but an indictment against “biased” mainstream media and “biased” polling operations.

Obama will win today, leaving bewildered Republicans to curse and gnash their teeth, wondering how a (supposedly) Muslim, non-citizen, socialist, black (gasp!) man like Obama could win a second term.  The answer is pretty simple, Republicans.

It’s not because of a liberal media bias.  It’s not because of biased polls.  It’s not because of “luck”, or Hurricane Sandy.   Obama will win election simply because he better represents the American electorate than does Romney, or the Republican Party as a whole.  The Republican party is at a crossroads.  The Tea Party movement of a few years ago may have propelled Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives, but that may very well be the last signficant political accomplishment of the new, “severely” conservative Republican Party.  The new “severely” conservative version of the Republican Party is now associated with the likes of Todd Akin…Richard Mourdock…and the “severely” conservative version of Mitt Romney.  The new “severely” conservative version of the Republican Party is one that’s doubled-down on a strategy based on winning the White vote, particularly the vote of White men.  The new “severely” conservative Republican Party has lost this election because they’ve abandoned women.  They’ve abandoned minorities. They’ve abandoned the poor.  They’ve become a party that represents rich, powerful, white men.  While this election has shown the power of money in the political process, it has also equally shown the limitations of money.  Money can’t compensate for a party platform based on exclusion…hate…intolerance…and greed.

Sorry Republicans, you have four more years of Obama, and if you’re looking for someone to blame (as I’m sure you are)…perhaps you should think long and hard while you’re looking in the mirror this morning.  You can’t build a political party on hate.  In America, our democracy WORKS, and you can’t build a political party by pandering only to the rich and powerful.   Obama has won this election because he, and the Democratic Party, BETTER REPRESENT WHAT AMERICA WANTS than does the Republican Party.

Republicans, you have four years to change course.  I’ve seen some rather ridiculous statements from Republican pundits who claim the problems with the party are easily “fixable”.  I’ve seen statements that simply providing more female candidates in 2016 should “fix” the party’s standing with women.  Good luck with that, Republicans.  Your problems run MUCH deeper than that, as if running out a few female candidates could overcome your lack of respect for women’s issues.  Also, with the changing demographics in the United States, minorities are gaining about 1.5% of the voting share with each 4-year election.  Republicans, frankly, I HOPE you continue down the path that the Tea Party and the right-wing ideologues of your party has set.

I hope you continue down that path, because that path leads to nowhere but complete irrelevance for your party.

FOUR…MORE…YEARS!!!!

Obama’s Re-election Chances – Monday Trends

Obama - Re-election

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Another day, and more solid movement towards Obama in each of the 5 sites.  At Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight noted yesterday, the national polls are now “catching up” to the state polls, with Obama now showing a slight lead at the national level.

One more day!

Obama’s Re-election Chances – Sunday Trends

Election - Sunday

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Latest trends from the betting and polling sites, for 8:00AM Sunday.  The betting sites haven’t changed much lately.  As Nate Silver on the FiveThirtyEight blog discussed, the betting sites tend to overestimate volatility in the races and underestimate the front runner, so it’s not surprising that even with more polls moving in Obama’s direction, that the betting sites haven’t changed much.  The statistical sites based on poll numbers (FiveThirtyEight and the Princeton site) continue to skew upward for Obama, as state polls continue to show slim, but consistent leads for Obama in the necessary swing states.

Definitely a very large advantage for Obama 2 days out, with a electoral map that gives every indication that Obama shouldn’t have any trouble reaching 270 votes.  At this stage, it would likely take something of a minor miracle for Romney to pull the upset.

End of an Era – Republican Election Based on Winning Whites

Tom Scocca at Slate.com has a scathing indictment of Republican campaign strategy over the last 40 years…a strategy based simply on winning the white vote. A strategy based on exploiting racism and fear. A strategy based on hate.  As the Scocca piece notes, Romney’s campaign strategy is based solely on one demographic…trying to win at least 60% of the white vote, with an emphasis on winning the vote of white men.  That part of his strategy certainly seems to be working, given that a recent poll shows Romney winning white men by a whopping 65% to 32%.

The story also notes that this may be the last election where Republicans can hope to use this strategy, at least at a national scale.  The changing demographics of America simply won’t allow for such a strategy to have a chance in hell as America becomes ever more diverse.  One more “old school” election, where the Hairy Old White Men in charge of the Republican Party try to eke out a win using old school tactics.

Great, brutally honest, and sadly, brutally true piece by Scocca.  Give it a read if you get a chance.  Makes me ashamed to be one of those Hairy (getting) Old White Men.

Latest Election “Odds” – Thursday Morning

Another day closer to the election, and yet more movement towards Obama from websites of the pundits and oddsmakers.  As of 7:00 AM Thursday:

InTrade – 65.6% chance of Obama re-election

Princeton Election Consortium – 93%

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight – 79%

Betfair – 75.1%

Iowa Electronic Markets – 65%

In every case, a shift towards Obama since yesterday, continuing the recent trend.  The poll-based, statistical sites above, such as Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and Princeton’s site, use the most recent polls, which still don’t have post-Sandy input, a “presidential moment” for Obama where praise was delivered even from political enemies.  They also don’t fully capture what I believe will be negative backlash against Romney for 1) His anti-FEMA comments from previous debates, and 2) the false ads running in Ohio, claiming that Chrysler/Jeep is moving jobs to China because of Obama.

Things are looking good…

 

Latest election “odds” – Wednesday Morning

We are 6 days out, and here are the latest “odds” from some of the pundits and betting sites:

InTrade – 63.9% chance of Obama re-election

Princeton Election Consortium – 93%

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight – 77.4%

Betfair – 71.4%

Iowa Electronic Markets – 62.5%

In short…all showing more movement to Obama.  Margins are still tight in individual state polls, but Obama consistent outpolls Romney in enough of the swing states to reach the magic 270 mark.  Romney is simply running out of time to change the direction of the race, and Hurricane Sandy certainly doesn’t help him. For one, it takes the election off the front pages for at least a few days.  Secondly, it puts Obama in the spotlight.  Images are sure to come out today of Obama and N.J. Governor Chris Christie touring damaged areas in New Jersey.  A “presidential” moment, and a situation where Obama has already been praised by multiple political enemies for the Federal response to Sandy.

 

Sandy helps clarify the election

Hurricane Sandy

Who would you rather have deal with disaster relief after something as devastating as Hurricane Sandy? The Federal Government? Or for-profit private industry? Government obviously has important roles to play in society, despite what one side will have you believe in this election.

Sandy has certainly proven to be the superstorm it was labeled, with massive flooding and damage as it slammed ashore in New Jersey last night.  There’s certainly plenty of coverage on Sandy in the media, and I won’t focus on the storm or storm damage itself.  I will comment though on a peripheral effect of Sandy…helping to clarify what this election is all about.

The New York Times today has a very nice editorial on the role of government in times like this.  As they state a “bit storm requires big government”.  Response to a disaster is of course one of many important roles the government plays.  However, to Romney and Republicans, ANY Federal government task, outside of making sure we have 10 times as many weapons as the next guy, is better relegated to states, or better yet, the private sector. Romney was asked about the role of FEMA in a Republican debate late last year, and stated that it was “immoral” to provide disaster relief, given the effects on the debt.  He goes on to say that FEMA tasks should be given to states themselves, or better yet, to private industry.

Mr. Romney, do you think the victims of Katrina thought it was “immoral” for the government to provide assistance in the face of a horrible disaster?  They probably thought Bush’s handling of the disaster was “immoral”, especially given how the Bush administration weakened FEMA during his administration.  But I guarantee you that victims of a national disaster such as Katrina or Sandy would NOT feel more comfortable having states handle such situations.  As much of a Obama basher as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is, ask him if he thinks his state can handle this situation on their own.

An even WORSE idea is Romney’s suggestion that such disaster relief be placed in the hands of private industry.  JUST what is needed in times of natural disaster…a capitalistic approach, and an opportunity to make a buck off of other people’s misery.

I’m not even surprised any more at how incredibly short people’s memories are, or how they understand basic political, economic, and social events in this country.  The Bush administration did everything they could to lessen government regulation, to let capitalism run unfettered by government restraint…and helped to lead us straight into the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression.  Four short years later, when a recovery has taken hold, when housing prices are rising, when unemployment is falling…and there’s a significant chance that Americans will be voting in another Republican administration who wants to cut government regulation, and privatize a government function as critical as FEMA and disaster response.

I wish those in the Northeast all the best as they try to recover from this storm.  It certainly is going to make life a lot harder for a lot of folks over the next several weeks and months.  But as an underfunded FEMA attempts to handle one of the largest natural disasters to hit the U.S., I hope that one tiny silver lining to the event is that it clarifies for many just what is on the line in this election.