The upper-left map is a model of the current range for the Hooded Warbler. The other maps show various scenarios for how that range will change by 2075. Blue colors represent gains in range (primarily in the north) while red represents a loss of range (primarily in the south, and in scattered areas where forest is projected to be lost).
A couple of months ago ago, when I was admittedly in a phase of never blogging, I had a paper published in PLoS ONE that examines how projected changes in climate and land use are likely to affect bird populations across the conterminous United States. Given that I wasn’t blogging at the time, I thought I’d get it out here on Feathers and Folly. It was a paper that got a lot of attention from the popular press…a rarity for me…including newspaper stories, an upcoming feature in Popular Science, and a live interview on South Dakota Public Radio. Here’s the link to listen to the Public Radio story:
SD Public Radio – “Mid-day” – Birds, Climate, and Land-use
My “day job” with the U.S. Geological Survey is to map and model land use and land use change, using satellite imagery and other sources. By modeling land use out into the future, we can determine how landscape changes might affect biodiversity, climate, hydrology, or other ecological processes. This paper represents the first time I’ve been able to link my day job, with my passion of birds and birding, which is why I was so excited to do this work, and thrilled to get it published.
For access to the paper itself, anybody can freely download it from PLoS ONE. Click here to go to the web pages for the paper.
I modeled 50 species of birds for the U.S., with most showing losses of range at their southern edge due to a warming climate, with gains of range at the northern end. Land change affected different species in different ways. Some species actually benefit from man-drive landscape change, while many others are negatively impacted by loss of habitat. The purpose of the paper was to show that it’s not just climate change that affects changes in bird populations, but also how man uses the landscape.
Maps such as the one found at the top are available for viewing for all 50 species that I modeled at the following website:
USGS Sohl Research – Climate and Land-use Change Impacts on Birds
Posted in Birding, Ecosystems at Risk, Environmental Awareness, Scientific Awareness
Tagged bird, change, climate, cover, journal, land, MaxEnt, model, modeling, paper, PLOS ONE, Popular Science, public, publication, radio, Terry Sohl, United States, use
Continuing what’s been a great year so far, I just had another paper published in a scientific journal. This one is “Land-Use Change in the Atlantic Coaswtal Pine Barrens Ecoregion”, and it was just published in the journal “Geographic Review“.
This one is is an interesting one for me, because the co-author is my wife! I worked on a project looking at satellite imagery and land-use change in the Atlantic Coastal Pine Barrens ecoregion. It’s an area that covers much of New Jersey, as well as Long Island, Cape Cod, and other immediate areas. My wife just happened to look at the New Jersey portion of the area for work she did in grad school.
Hence the teaming up and writing a paper for the area! Click here if you’d like to take a look.
Posted in Environmental Awareness, Scientific Awareness
Tagged article, Atlantic, change, Coastal, cover, ecoregion, imagery, journal, land, Landsat, Long Island, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, New Jersey, paper, Pine Barrens, publication, remote sensing, satellite, scientific, Terry Sohl, use
It’s ALWAYS a good day to be a scientist when one of your papers is published in a journal. Today I had a paper published in the journal Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment. The paper describes land-cover modeling that was done in the Great Plains of the United States. We used our own, home-grown modeling framework, “FORE-SCE” (Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change), and projected land-cover change from 2006 out through the year 2100, for 4 different scenarios.
We’re doing the same kind of land-cover modeling for all of the U.S., with a goal of finishing by the end of the year. The land-cover scenarios we’re producing are being used to look at the impacts of land-cover change on carbon fluxes and other greenhouse gases. We really have a great team working on this.
Click here to take a look at the paper! Drop what you’re doing! Put down that book! Turn off the TV! Shut down the computer! Ignore the family! This is a paper that’s SURE to keep you riveted to your seat!
Posted in Scientific Awareness
Tagged AGEE, Agriculture, and Environment, cover, Ecosystems, Great Plains, land, land cover land use, model, modeling, paper, scenario, Terry Sohl, United States, use