Tag Archives: change

Climate Change and Hummingbird Migration – With Great Photo!

Ruby-throated Hummingbird

Ruby-throated Hummingbird feeding at a honeysuckle plant. In Brandon, South Dakota. On June 9th, 2008. At someone's front porch. With a guy grilling hamburgers nearby. Just a hunch...

Jason Courter from Taylor University, along with his co-authors, published research that examined the migration of the Ruby-throated Hummingbird, finding the birds are moving north earlier than they did historically.  The birds are arriving back in North America 12 to 18 days earlier than they did prior to 1970.  Overshadowing the research itself is of course the incredible, fantastic photo that has accompanied the story that’s been carried by the popular press.  The photo is of a male Ruby-throated Hummingbird hovering in front of an orange honeysuckle bloom.  I happen to have very, very personal knowledge that the photo was taken from the front porch of a private home in Brandon, South Dakota, in between the grilling of hamburgers  (just a hunch).

It is cool to have a photo in a science story like this, a story that’s been picked up by AP and has shown up in a number of news outlets, including overseas in The Guardian and elsewhere.  But of course it’s the science itself that is the cool story here.  The research isn’t the first to show that migration dates have changed in the last century, presumably in response to climate change.  It is yet another very strong piece of evidence that indicates our climate is changing, and that natural ecosystems are evolving to adapt.

Nice story, and the research article is definitely worth reading if you can get a copy.  It is published in The Auk, the journal of the American Ornithologists Union.

Video – Human Impact on the Atmosphere

New York - Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Video produced as part of a study for Mayor Bloomberg's office in New York City. This screen capture from the video shows how much carbon dioxide is emitted from New York EVERY DAY. That's the Empire State Building sticking out of the top.

One of the arguments often made by conservatives, especially religious conservatives, is that man simply can’t affect the atmosphere enough to be causing global warming.  There are many on the religious right who believe mankind doesn’t have the power to change the planet to that degree, that only God has the ability to control the Earth and its environment. 

This is a great video to help folks understand the impact human beings have on the environment:

New York City – Carbon Dioxide Emissions Video

The video was produced as part of a study by Mayor Bloomberg’s office, on the long-term effects of carbon emissions.  It’s one thing to explain to people just how much carbon dioxide people emit.  It’s another to graphically depict exactly how large one ton of carbon dioxide is, and the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide over time.

Striking video…even more striking when you consider this just depicts carbon dioxide emissions for one city, over what’s a blink of an eye in terms of the Earth’s history.  When you imagine the emissions depicted in this video, multiplied millions of times over from emissions all over the planet, year after year, it’s hard to deny that human beings are significantly impacting the earth’s atmosphere.  It’s impossible to deny that human beings are the cause of global warming.

The “Real” Obama – Repubs, you have nothing to fear

Barack Obama

Barack Obama - Moderate Republican. At least that's a label that's been placed on him by multiple pundits. Republicans, you have nothing to fear. Obama isn't driving America over some "liberal cliff". As his comments on climate change today have shown, the man is a moderate in every sense of the word.

Over the last four years, there has been a lot of Republican speculation about the “real” Obama, this monster of a man who would soon emerge and lead the U.S. down the path of socialism.

Uh…no.  You have absolutely nothing to fear, Republicans.  Andrew Sullivan of the Daily Beast said as much when he went on the Colbert Report on the night of the election.  The Daily Beast runs towards the liberal side, but Sullivan is a self-professed conservative, albeit a conservative who was extremely unhappy where Republicans have taken the party.  As Sullivan stated, Republicans should be happy about the election…a “Moderate Republican” won.  He’s not the only one to say so.  William Saletan at Slate.com also ran a story the day after the election, saying Republicans should cheer up because they have a moderate Republican in office for the next four years…Barack Obama.

Democrats have certainly been disappointed in Obama on a number of issues.  Yes, he kept his first campaign promises on health care and on ending the wars.  But Obama also has failed to close Guantanamo, hasn’t addressed immigration reform, and has caved on a number of environmental issues.  During the campaign, the issue of climate change was notable…notably absent, that is, from any discussion during the campaign or during the debates.  During Obama’s victory speech on the night of the election, he gave a passing nod to the issue of climate change, noting the dangers of a warming planet.  That line got him a very loud ovation…but…climate change simply wasn’t much of an issue this election, even for Obama.

Yesterday during his press conference, Obama came out and said that climate change is NOT a priority for him, that it will take a back seat to the economy.   In the press conference, he stated that it’s important, that it’s a tough issue, but that it would take “tough political choices” for it to be addressed.

In other words…Obama is punting on climate change.  At this stage, I honestly don’t think it matters.  There’s no going back.  We’ve already set the wheels in motion for severe climate change.  Even if by some miracle there was a global epiphany and humanity decided to immediately cut back carbon emissions, climate change is going to march merrily ahead for the nest few centuries.

However, once again, Obama has disappointed liberals.  Once again, Obama is showing that Republican pundits’ comments that Obama is “the most liberal president in America’s history” are complete BS.   You have nothing to fear, Republicans.  Obama isn’t going to take the country down some radical liberal path.  He’s an obvious moderate…and even for a hard-core liberal like myself, I think that’s just what we need right now, someone who can straddle the fence and try to bridge the gap between the two “sides” the nation has seemingly split into.

Now…Republicans just have to join the real world, and see Obama for the true moderate that he is.

Perusin’ and Musin’

Perusing and MusingSome random thoughts from perusing the web…

Gay Teen Denied Eagle Scout - Ryan Andresen did everything he needed to do to earn Eagle Scout.  However, the Scoutmaster of his troop refused to sign off on his paperwork.  Andresen’s issue?  He’s gay, and in the twisted, ass-backwards world of the Boy Scouts, that’s a sin punishable by…well…punishable by not getting Eagle Scout.  This has been a topic of conversation at our house lately, as our young son has asked about cub scouts.  It’s hard to relate to a 9-year old that we don’t want him in Boy Scouts because THEY ARE A BUNCH OF  HYPOCRITICAL BIGOTS.  Teach a boy about what’s “right” in life…and yet teaching kids to discriminate against gays?  Sorry Scouts…you’re just lucky the Boy Scouts in general didn’t win my “Scum of the Week” award.

Biden Too “Mean” for Voters - As noted in my last blog post…typical America.  Future of the country’s direction at stake in an election, and all people talk about is the style of Biden, content be damned.  This story talks about Biden and if his style was too “mean” for Iowa voters.  Hey, Iowa voters…what do you want?  An upfront, HONEST discussion of substance?  Or the more polite, complete POS liar?  Are there REALLY scads of stupid Iowans, running around saying “OH MY GOD! I’m pro-choice, care about the environment, and care about the middle class, but I’m voting for Ryan!  Biden is too mean!”  GMAFB.  People in general are as dumb as a stick, but I hope to god they’re not THIS stupid.

Why Wasn’t Climate Change a Big Topic at the Presidential Debate? – Some have wondered why climate change wasn’t discussed at all during the first Obama/Romney debate.  Simple…it doesn’t matter to most Americans. Sure, most of the stuff talked about during the debates doesn’t matter to most Americans, given that (again) style seems to matter more than content.  But despite the “controversy” (ha) over climate change, it’s just not that important to most people, because, for now, it doesn’t affect them.  It won’t be until there are massive economic consequences of climate change (not that far off!) that people will care.  And by then, it will be too late.

Nobel Peace Prize Given to E.U. - And…individuals in the press have fallen all over themselves today criticizing the award.  I hate the focus on the negative in the media.  Negative stories must “sell” more than stories that celebrate accomplishment, because it doesn’t matter what the topic it is, it seems the media focuses on the negative side, or creates an artificial negative side.  Why not celebrate the accomplishments of the E.U.?  Why not discuss what they’ve accomplished, rather than splashing a front page story on CNN about why it was the “wrong” choice?  And people wonder why people are so polarized in this country, on practically every issue?

You are NOT entitled to your opinion – Shut the hell up

From Patrick Stokes, here’s a nice piece on why you are sometimes NOT “entitled to your opinion”.   The point he’s making is that you are only “entitled” to an opinion that you can make a coherent argument for.  He uses an example of anti-vaccination paranoia to make his point, where the manic anti-vaccine crowd doesn’t have a scientific leg to stand on.  Science is science, fact is fact.  If your opinion is based on conjecture, intuition, “faith”, or other factor not supported by the facts?  Then you are NOT entitled to your opinion, when trying to argue against science and against fact.

Thus, a “Shut the Hell Up” topic for this post.  As we enter the home stretch of the presidential election, it’s rather laughable to read some of the opinions of those on the right.  Do you believe any of the following?  If so, then please do everyone else a favor, and save yourself some embarrassment.  Just Shut…the…hell…up.

- Obama Muslim? Obama a non-citizen? – Do I need to even mention these? Are you a disgusting, racist, pig-of-a-human being who believes Obama is not a citizen?  Do you believe that historical newspaper reports and a birth certificate are simply part of some massive conspiracy? Are you a disgusting, racist, pig-of-a-human being who refers to Obama as “Barack Husein Obama” and believes he’s secretly a Muslim?  If you answered “yes” to any of these questions, PLEASE…SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.

- Evolution Denial – Science is based on theory.  Theories are tested, with evidence either supporting or negating hypotheses.  With evolution, the evidence is extremely clear, both in the fossil record, and in real-world, observable processes.  Do you believe in creationism?  I really don’t care if you believe some omnipotent, all-powerful entity created the earth and the universe, IF you can reconcile that in your own mind with the science.  Do you believe evolution is false?  Do you believe evolution is a “lie straight from hell”, like Paul Broun, quite possibly the most ignorant congressman in the U.S.?  Do you belive the earth is just a few thousand years old?  If so, then SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.  Save yourself the embarrassment that’s sure to come whenever you open your mouth.

- Climate Change Denial – Possibly as soon as 5 years from now, the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer for the first time in at least 13 million years.  The U.S. is about to set a record for its warmest year ever.  Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, and the scientific evidence continues to overwhelmingly point to not only a warming climate, but a warming climate caused by anthropogenic activity.  Do you believe climate change isn’t real?  Do you believe scientists and liberals are involved in some unprecedented, massive conspiracy to somehow consolidate government power by pointing to climate change?  Do you believe that climate change is occurring, but humans have nothing to do with it?  If so…SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.

- Polls are politically biased – Just one week ago, before the debates, conservative talking heads and blogs were expressing outrage over the liberal bias of polls that showed Obama with a healthy and growing lead over Romney.  Obama with a 6-point lead in Ohio?  A 5-point lead in Florida?  BALONEY, said those on the right!  It’s a liberal conspiracy to discourage Republicans and depress voter turnout from the right!!  One short week later, and an Obama debate flop has the poll trends strongly reversing towards Romney. Hey Rush?  Do you still think the polls are biased toward Obama?  How about you other buffoons and blowhards who scoff at polls when they show Democrats ahead?  GMAFB.  The very success and long-term continuance of polling entities depends on them being RIGHT.  If they’re wrong, they are ignored in future elections and the polling group goes out of business.  Are you one of those idiots who thinks political polls are purposely biased towards Democrats?  Do you think there’s some conspiracy in the polls to depress Republican turnout?  If so, then SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.

- 1997 Michigan was better than 1997 Nebraska - A bit off topic, but…do you believe the 1997 Michigan Wolverines would beat the 1997 Nebraska Cornhuskers?  Do you believe the Wolverines were “robbed” when a perfect, 13-0 Nebraska team finished first in the coaches poll, while the Wolverines finished first in the AP poll?  Puh-lease.  The Nebraska ground game easily wears down the Wolverine defense, and the Blackshirts dominate the Wolverines.  Final score if they’d have played?  Nebraska 31, Michigan 13.  Do you believe the Wolverines were the better team?  Laughable!  SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.

- Unemployment numbers manipulated by Obama and Liberals - Unemployment numbers out last week were good by any measure, with unemployment falling to 7.8%.  Good news, right?  Well, to nutjob conservatives, ANYTHING positive that could EVER be attributed to Obama has to be a lie!  A liberal conspiracy!  Clearly Obama has somehow influenced the unemployment statistics!  Are you one of those conservative wackos who believes last week’s unemployment numbers were altered by Obama?  Please, just SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.

- Romney Budget Miracle - Do you believe that you can simultaneously 1) Cut taxes 2) Maintain or raise military spending, and 3) balance the budget?  Romney/Ryan seem to believe in such a formula for long-term fiscal sanity.  Do you believe it’s possible?  GMAFB….SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.

- Voter ID Regulations Are About Voter FraudReport after report show that voter fraud in the U.S. is insignificant.  However, a number of states have pushed strict voter ID regulations, with Republican-led state legislatures and governors leading the charge to increase scrutiny of in-person voters.  If in-person voter fraud isn’t an issue, if very few instances have been documented…why the push by Republican state legislatures to push for very strict voter ID laws?  Under oath, I don’t think you’d even get most Republicans to say the laws are about curbing voter fraud.  It’s about suppressing votes by minorities and other groups who historically lean very heavily towards Democrats.  It’s a form of discrimination, it’s a form of racism, it’s about voter suppression.  If you believe it’s actually about voter fraud?  You’re an idiot…SHUT…THE…HELL…UP.

People believing what they want to believe

Cigarette Warning

It's a lot easier for a smoker to deny the facts, than it is to accept that their habit may be killing their friends and family. People are wonderful at ignoring fact, if it doesn't jive with their own lifestyle or beliefs.

From Slate.com today, a story about smokers, with only 28% of smokers saying second-hand smoke is very harmful to others. 63% of nonsmokers think second-hand smoke is very harmful.  This brings up a question…why the HELL do people “believe” what they believe?

I put “believe” in quotes, because frankly, the way people answer a question like this may differ from what they truly believe.  Do nonsmokers really think all that extra smoke floating around isn’t harmful?  Or…do many of them just try to convince themselves that it’s not harmful, knowing the truth, but trying their best to deny it, just so they don’t have to face the fact that their bad habits are not only harming themselves, but also harming others?

It’s amazing that an age of free information flow, where your computer or smart phone can instantly lead you to answers for practically any question you may have, that ignorance appears to be GROWING, not lessening.  Granted, it doesn’t help when any quack with a computer can set up a website saying the earth is flat, or that aliens are secretly running the earth.  However, just as smokers HAVE to really believe in their hearts that second-hand smoke is harmful to others, I think it has to be the same with climate change denialists, evolution denialists, or others that deny sound and well-established science.

Some right-wing wacko can listen to Rush Limbaugh or go to a right-wing “climate” site and hear plenty of “evidence” that climate change isn’t real.  But even as cynical as I am, I find it very hard to believe that deep down, people are truly that stupid, that they’ll believe a Rush Limbaugh over an actual climate scientist.  Life-or-death situation, if your immortal soul is in the balance…would even a right-wing wacko go with the word of a Limbaugh, over the established science?  I find it very hard to believe that someone would do so.

It’s human nature to be, well…stubborn.  God knows my 8-year old son can vouch for that.  People are also selfish sons-of-bitches.  Does Shell Oil or Exxon spend money denying climate change science, because they don’t believe it’s real?  Of course not, they fight climate change science because it could affect their bottom dollar.  It’s the same with an individual human being.  We’re selfish, we want to live our lives in comfort and style.  If some annoying piece of information clashes with how we want to live our lives, if something causes us a bit of GUILT…our first reaction is to react defensively, and dispute the information, rather than changing our beliefs.  And that’s true if it’s smokers denying the danger of second-hand smoke, Humvee drivers who scoff at climate change, or even evolution-deniers who don’t want to face their own mortality without the comfort that their religion (and eternal life) provides them.

People will “believe” what they want to believe, facts be damned.  As a scientist, that can be awfully damned maddening.  But what’s dangerous is that this form of “personal ignorance” has become an accepted component of politics and collective thinking.  There’s no way in hell Republican leadership truly believes that climate change is a hoax.  There’s no way in hell Republican leadership thinks evolution is false.  But they are certainly willing to use people’s own biases and personal ignorance for their own political ends.  And that is even less forgivable than an individual trying to deny the danger of second-hand smoke, just so they feel less guilty about puffing away.

 

Arctic Ice-free in 4 years?

Hairy Old White Men

This is it!! The LAST American presidential election where fucked up, greedy, "Hairy Old White Men" like those running the Republican Party can ever deny the reality of climate change.

I haven’t blogged about climate change in many months.  I guess it’s because I don’t even think about it any more.  No, not from the James Inhoffe viewpoint, sticking my ignorant head in the ground and ignoring the issue.  No, I don’t think about it because it’s a fact of life, just like the sun rising every morning.  It’s happening, it’s relentlessly marching on, and at this stage, there’s absolutely nothing we can do to stop it.  We’ve dug our grave…

But even as a scientist who knows the science behind climate change, I find the pace of change truly shocking.  I find stories like this one truly shocking.   It’s been a given that Arctic  sea ice has been shrinking, but the pace of decline has outpaced even the most dire of predictions.  Last week, it was officially announced that the Arctic sea ice was at its lowest level ever…and there were still a few weeks left in the melt season.  What’s really shocking are the numbers, compared to just 30 years ago.

By area, Arctic sea ice covers 45% less area today than it did over the 1979 to 2000 average.  HALF of Arctic sea ice gone, in the blink of a geologic eye.  It’s even more shocking when you look at volume of sea ice, as it’s not just area that’s declined precipitously, it’s the volume of the remaining ice.  The remaining ice continues to deteriorate in quality and thickness, and now is down an astounding 72% from the 1979 to 2000 average.  THREE-QUARTERS of all Arctic ice…gone in one generation.

As the story above states, the pace of decline is outpacing all projections, and it’s now quite possible that in just 4 years, the Arctic will be completely ice-free in the summer.

The “good” news, I guess, if there is any?  This could very well be the VERY last presidential election where one completely fucked up American political party denies the reality of climate change.  Four summers from now, when ships are freely plowing across the Arctic Ocean without any pesky ice to stop them, it will be awfully damned hard for the greedy, ignorant, short-sighted SOB’s on the right to deny the reality of climate change. Of course, by then it will also be too late to do anything about it…since right NOW, it’s too late to do anything about it.

Legislating away climate change

Earth on Fire

Anthropogenic effects on climate change? GONE!! Legislated away by the BRILLIANT (as always) Republicans in the North Carolina legislature. WHY in the hell didn't we think of doing this a long time ago??!!?

I don’t know whether to laugh, or cry.  Sometimes the complete idiocy (and greed) of human beings initiates both reactions at the same time.  Take the case of North Carolina law makers this week…

If you haven’t seen it, take the time to watch Stephen Colbert’s slant to this story.  It seems that a North Carolina coastal economic development group isn’t happy with scientists.  Darn pesky scientists…they had the GALL to predict that sea level rise would be greater than 3 feet by 2100.  It makes it a LOT harder to sell coastal real estate or convince companies to locate on the North Carolina coast, when all the evidence and science in the world points to that land being underwater in 50 or so years.

So…the economic development group has partnered with Republican (of course!) lawmakers in the state to basically outlaw science!!  The businesspeople and Republican lawmakers simply are saying that scientists are wrong, and that you should ONLY look at what’s happened in the past, to predict future climate change.  None of this fretting over CO2 levels that just reached 400 ppm!!  No fretting about accelerating warming in the polar regions that will melt ice like butter in a blast furnace!! Nah….it’s the REAL ESTATE industry that REALLY knows climate science!!!

So, they’re crafting legislation that would effectively legislate away climate change science!  They would make it North Carolina LAW that any climate projections affecting policy in the state would assume that sea-level rise will simply occur at historical levels, and won’t accelerate as global warming ramps up. 

Simple! Problem solved!  We scientist…SO, so silly, worrying about gathering evidence, analyzing the data, and spitting out facts and figures.  All we really need to do is legislate science away!  Think of the possibilities!  What if the Yellowstone caldera should get frisky and threaten to erupt again?  No need for scientists to study it…just pass a law outlawing the volcano from erupting!  Giant asteroid headed on a collision course with earth?  No problem!! Just legislate it away!!

Unbelievable.  It DOES perfectly represent what the Republican Party represents, however.  After all, we CAN’T have science interfere with real estate and business! If science is butting heads with business interests, is there ever ANY doubt on which side of the argument Republicans will land?   We’ve seen this story a hundred times in other forms…fracking and polluting water supplies, endangered species habitat vs. development, air quality vs. power company lobbyists…it’s the same story every time.  What’s so pathetic is that I’m sure Republican VOTERS in North Carolina are swallowing this hook, line, and sinker, and APPLAUDING their hillbilly legislators for this bold move.

To laugh?  Or to cry?  With each move Republicans make like this, it’s getting harder and harder to laugh about it.

Woo-hoo! Another Journal Pub!

Sohl and Sohl - Pine Barrens Land ChangeContinuing what’s been a great year so far, I just had another paper published in a scientific journal.  This one is “Land-Use Change in the Atlantic Coaswtal Pine Barrens Ecoregion”, and it was just published in the journal “Geographic Review“.  

This one is is an interesting one for me, because the co-author is my wife!  I worked on a project looking at satellite imagery and land-use change in the Atlantic Coastal Pine Barrens ecoregion.  It’s an area that covers much of New Jersey, as well as Long Island, Cape Cod, and other immediate areas.  My wife just happened to look at the New Jersey portion of the area for work she did in grad school.

Hence the teaming up and writing a paper for the area!  Click here if you’d like to take a look.

Humanity and Climate Change – Cartoon by Stephanie McMillan

Cartoon - Stephanie McMillan

This pretty much sums up how humanity is facing climate change. Here in the U.S., our OWN efforts are the most embarrassing, but hey, at least we're honest! We don't even go to the trouble of PRETENDING we care. Cartoon by Stephanie McMillan, from "Code Green".

A cartoon (Stephanie McMillan – Code Green) that pretty much sums up the world’s “resolve” for tackling climate change.  I blame basic biology…

We’re animals.  We have the same biologic factors driving our behavior as do animals.  We’d LIKE to say that we’ve evolved beyond that.  We’re very good at ACTING as if the “good of mankind” is an important factor that drives our behavior.  But when push comes to shove…we’re selfish little biological creatures with an overwhelming desire to personally survive and thrive. 

Hence my reason for liking this cartoon.  Even amongst the nations that act as if they care about climate change ( a group that sadly does NOT include the U.S.), there’s a lot SAID about reducing carbon emissions.  There’s a lot SAID about changing how we use the land.  But…emissions continue to rise.  Forests continue to be destroyed.  And atmospheric CO2 levels continue to skyrocket.

Even amongst those who seemingly DO “care”, efforts are typically feeble.  There are some very good-hearted people who run some of the conferences I go to for work, who allow you to donate to “carbon offset” funds, where perhaps a tree may be planted to offset the cost of your traveling to the conference.  Sounds good, but…c’mon.  It’s not worth a hill of beans, in terms of affecting atmospheric CO2.  It’s kind of like voting…individual human beings can do it, can (and should) feel good about doing it…but when push comes to shove, any one person’s vote just typically doesn’t matter much by itself.  And even if every conference in the world would do this, the impact would still be negligible.

It’s only when humanity as a whole “cares” that any real change occurs.  However…people are greedy, selfish lil’ biological creatures.  Thinking 100 years down the road?  Not important for the vast majority of people, who are much more concerned that they have the latest and greatest cell phone, that they have a house and car more impressive than their friends and neighbors, and they enjoy the NOW as much as possible.  Heck, even thinking one generation down the road seems to be too much to ask.  Given how people treat the environment, it’s quite obvious that they are very happy to destroy the very environment their children will depend upon, all for the sake of their OWN short-term desires.

It’s tough to overcome basic biology. We’re just animals, fighting over that last bone like a pack of wolves…