Monthly Archives: October 2011

Climate Skeptic Converted: Still a Jerk

Temperature Data

Muller and the Berkeley group have simply replicated what everybody else has already shown with temperature data, yet Muller says until his results, people should have been skeptical.

I previously posted that Richard Muller, a former skeptic that the earth was warming, was “converted” when he himself conducted a 2-year study to examine global temperature data.  Prior to conducting his own investigation, he claimed skepticism over the way the data were analyzed.  After his group examined the data themselves, they came to the exact same conclusions as every other climate scientist…the earth is warming. 

So why am I saying he’s still a jerk?  When asked about the study, Muller said “The skeptics raised valid points and everybody should have been a skeptic two years ago.”   He goes on to say “and NOW we have confidence that the temperature rise that had previously been reported had been done without bias.”

Muller really sounds like a jerk.   Practically every climate scientist on the planet had looked at the temperature data and saw the obvious conclusion that the earth is warming.  But Muller is basically implying that there could be no confidence in the temperature data until HE looked at it.  Scientists can be pompous jackasses.   Some skepticism is obviously good in science, as all theories need to be examined with a critical eye.   But what Muller is basically saying is that it is HIS approach that has somehow confirmed the temperature rise in the data, and that previous efforts should be examined with skepticism…despite his results looking EXACTLY like previous results.

I guess when you’ve made as much of a fool of yourself like Muller did, this is his own personal way of saving face.

Muffin-Gate – 2011

Seinfeld's Elaine and Muffin Top

Not since Elaine and her boss started a business selling just the muffin tops have muffins been such a controversial topic in America.

America today continues to be gripped by the riveting story of Muffin-Gate.   In September, the Justice Department’s inspector general reported that an audit had revealed department officials had paid $16 per muffin at a Hilton during an official meeting.  The news sparked outrage from the public, the media, and the Justice Department itself, with accusations of government waste.   Muffin-Gate 2011 continues the shocking string of muffin-related bombshells that have rocked the political world in recent months.

It was just three months ago that First Lady and noted child nutrition advocate Michelle Obama was spotted at a D.C. area gourmet-muffin store.  Photos of the First Lady with a cream cheese mustache were splashed  across the front pages of newspapers across the country, and an embarrassed Michelle Obama was forced to publicly admit that not only did she enjoy the king-sized sugary treats, but that she herself had gained weight and was sporting her own muffin-top.  The resulting outrage over Mrs. Obama’s nutritional hypocrisy led to a 35% drop in muffin sales nationwide.

The $28 billion muffin industry took another hit back in May after the Tea Party attempted to incorporate a muffin theme into the movement’s political agenda.  The idea blossomed when a member of Michelle Bachmann’s crack campaign staff watched a Seinfeld episode which featured the character Elaine eating only the delectable muffin tops, and discarding the bottoms.   Bachmann and Tea Party leaders adopted the “split muffin” as a symbol of government waste, claiming inefficient government expenditures were akin to throwing away the bottom half of the muffins.  Bachmann’s popularity initially surged as her now infamous muffin-themed campaign ads resonated with voters.  Bachmann’s short stint at the top of the polls abruptly ended when it was revealed that the “gay conversion” therapy clinic run by Bachmann and her husband had been purchasing and serving cheap muffin bottom leftovers from the local homeless shelter. 

The latest episode of muffin-gate 2011 was partially defused today as the Justice Department’s inspector general announced that it had made a mistake when it had reported the department had paid $16 apiece for muffins.  In reality, the $16 fee charged by Hilton was to provide a complete continental breakfast for government participants at the meeting.   The actual price of the muffin component of the breakfast remains a mystery, however, leading House leaders John Boehner and Eric Cantor to announce the formation of an official inquiry into government muffin prices.  Rep. Peter King (R – N.Y.), chairman of congressional hearings into “Islam radicalization”, was named to lead the inquiry into muffin prices.   “The high prices charged for government muffins are indicative of a much deeper problem”, stated King. “Why should good American muffins be so expensive?  Muffin prices were never an issue…until 9-11.”  King’s Muffin Panel has scheduled its initial hearing for next week, with most of the subpoenaed speakers representing the Muslim Muffin coalition.

GOP presidential hopefuls were uncharacteristically unanimous in their support of the Muffin Panel hearings.  “Muffin prices were never an issue under Reagan”, said Newt Gingrich, “or under Bush.  Muffin prices have always been higher when Democrats are in charge.”   Texas Governor Rick Perry dismissed Democratic claims that muffin prices are simply reflective of the overall economy.  “I don’t believe in that economic voodoo,” said Perry. “Muffin prices are God’s way of punishing us for believing in that dad-gum climate change mumbo-jumbo.”  Herman Cain has responded to Muffin-Gate by making muffin prices a key component of his economic plan.  “Under Herman Cain, no government employee will ever pay more than $9.99 for a muffin”.

Senate Priority – College Football Realignment

Mitch McConnell?  College Football?

Mitch McConnell? Should college football conference realignment be a high priority for the Republican minority leader?

The nation is trying to recover from the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression. Unemployment stubbornly continues to hover around 9%….ironically, the same percentage as the current approval rating for Congress. The debt-reduction committee has one month to come up with a plan to cut the federal deficit. You would think improving the economy would be the highest priority for the Senate.

Silly you. This is the U.S. Senate we’re talking about!! While Obama has tried in vain to try to push through jobs legislation to get America working again, legislation the GOP has completed refused to even consider, several key members of the Senate, including minority leader Mitch McConnell have been spending their time on the MUCH more important issue of college football realignment.

OK, I’m as big of a college football fan as anyone, and will support my Nebraska Cornhuskers until the day I die. However “important” college football may be, I shudder to think of members of the U.S. Senate spending their time actively lobbying for their schools to get favorable treatment in conference realignment talks. Aren’t there more important issues for them to be worrying about right now? Even MORE importantly…the LAST thing I want is for Congress to interfere in college football!! CONGRESS SCREWS UP EVERYTHING THEY TOUCH!! THEY HAVE THE ANTI-MIDAS TOUCH!!! If McConnell and other members of Congress start interfering in college football, it won’t take long before college football is about as popular as watching bowling on TV.

What is always laughable to me is the self-perception these guys seem to have of themselves, versus how the general public views them. Given all the money and influence these bozos seem to have, I’m not exactly surprised someone with as bloated of an ego as McConnell would think he has a role to play in college football realignment. Senators McConnell, Rockefeller, and Manchin…get over yourselves. College sports will somehow survive without you throwing your weight around. Instead of worrying about whether Louisville or West Virginia will get into the Big 12 conference, how about actually engaging with Obama on his jobs creation bill? How about getting people working again before worrying about your alma mater?

Woo-hoo! Manuscript accepted for publication

It’s always a great day at work when a manuscript gets accepted for publication! We’re doing work on modeling scenarios of future land-use change, and looking at the impacts on carbon sequestration. I wrote a paper on our first modeling results, and after nearly a year of working on it and going through the peer-review process, it’s finally been accepted for journal publication.

I was having a pretty cruddy day up to this point, but seeing the acceptance email this evening certainly brightened the day up for me!

Photo Story – Western Grebe and Chick

Western Grebe and Chick

A very young Western Grebe chick, hitching a ride on its parent's back. Click for a larger view.

I haven’t done a photo story in a while.  Here’s one of my favorites from spring.  One of my favorite birding and photography locations is around Lake Thompson and Kingsbury County.  Until the early 1990s, Lake Thompson was a very large wetland, but without a lot of open water.  A very wet period in the late 1980s and early 1990s filled the basin and made Lake Thompson the largest natural lake in South Dakota.  Water levels have fluctuated since, but with a very wet summer and winter last year, the water level is again very high.  It’s not only Lake Thompson, but also Lake Whitewood, another very large lake just to the east of Lake Thompson.

The attraction of Lake Thompson and Lake Whitewood for me are the water birds.  Waterfowl, shorebirds, wading birds, gulls and terns, and American White Pelicans can often be found in large numbers in the area, and it’s also a good place to see some relative rarities for eastern South Dakota.  One of my favorite locations in spring is Lake Whitewood, as it seems to be a local hotspot for breeding Western Grebes.  If you’ve never seen them, Western Grebes are one of the most amazing species to watch in the spring and early summer.  In early spring when birds begin to court, a mating pair will both raise out of the water in a vertical position and perform spectacular mating dances along the top of the water, with birds often mirroring each other’s poses as they dance in unison.  As a pair continues to court, they will begin to gather mud and vegetation, and again as both rise out of the water, the pair will face each other and “present” nesting material to each other.  It’s hard to watch a mating pair and not anthropomorphize the behavior…it’s such a sweet, wonderful thing to watch.

I’ve seen the birds mating behavior a number of times, but one thing I’d never had the pleasure of seeing was what happens once the chicks hatch.  This spring I specifically went to Lake Whitewood to see the hatched chicks.  I wasn’t disappointed!  With the incredibly high water, a lot of shoreline vegetation was flooded, providing wonderful nesting areas for the Grebe pairs.  As I drove a road which splits the lake, I could see single and paired Grebes cruising near the shoreline.  I was worried that I had come too soon though, as I didn’t see any chicks at first.  I got my camera and bird lens out, and started trying to take some photos of the adult birds.  I was indeed too early for most of the chicks…but not for all!!  It didn’t take too long to find this adult with its chick.

When the chicks are very young and first leave the nest, they have the incredibly adorable habit of snuggling up in the plumage on the back of a parent, and going along for a ride!   I’d always wanted to capture the scene in a photo, and this was my chance.  The Grebes on Lake Whitewood typically aren’t particularly shy.  When you first approach on this road, the birds do typically move away from the road a short distance.  I’ve learned though that if you pull over on the side of the road and wait, the birds soon forget that there’s a person in the car, and they will once again start to behave normally, and often, very close to the road.  I spotted this bird and chick and simply waited.  After only a few minutes, the adult and chick cruised within photo range.  For about 5 minutes, the adult cruised relatively close to the car, but the chick remained mostly hidden in the adult’s plumage.  For just a moment, the chick popped his head up, and I grabbed one, and only one, quick frame of parent and chick.  It was a cloudy, dreary day, but despite the bad lighting, this is one of my favorite photos.

I definitely plan on returning in the next spring or two.  I still don’t have much for photos of courting birds, and I’d definitely like to try to get more photos of the adults and chicks.

Rick Perry IS Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin and Rick Perry

Sarah Palin and Rick Perry, two peas in a pod. Both dumber than a stick, and both blaming the media when their own inadequacies are exposed.

I had a revelation today when reading the headlines.   Rick Perry, 2011 IS Sarah Palin, 2008.  Remember back to 2008, when Palin made a complete fool of herself in an interview with Katie Couric?   An obviously embarrassed Palin immediately started to blame Couric, and then the media in general, when the embarrassments continued to pile up for her.

Now flash back to the present.  Today, in an interview on Fox News, Rick Perry said the one thing he regretted most is “ever doing one of the debates“.   Perry’s reasoning (aka, excuse) was that “all they’re interested in is stirring it up between the candidates instead of really talking about the issues that are important to the American people.”  Translating from Perry-speak into basic English, Perry’s statement reads as “I made a complete fool of myself during the debates, and wish I never had to embarrass myself again”.  

It’s the classic Republican response when the heat gets turned up.  For a Perry or a Palin, it’s NEVER about your own pitiful inadequacies.   No, of course it’s some media conspiracy or bias that is causing you to look like a complete idiot.  For a guy who was hoping to turn his fading campaign around this week with his announcement of a flat-tax plan, Perry is certainly sticking his foot in his mouth a lot this week.

Perusin’ & Musin’

Some random thoughts from perusing the web…

Rick Perry Wants Wall Street Regulation Rolled Back – In an interview on CNBC, Rick Perry said that regulation of Wall Street was fine before the collapse, that it was actually the fault of government regulators that the economy crashed.  He wants Dodd-Frank and other Wall Street regulations to be rolled back.   Merry Christmas, Wall Street.  Between Perry’s 20% flat tax proposal and his desire to roll back financial regulation, happy times are sure to return to Wall Street.  It’s just the rest of us who won’t be participating in whatever kind of economic recovery Perry prefers.

CDC Recommends Boys get HPV  Vaccination - The CDC today put out a recommendation that young boys also get the HPV vaccine, before they become sexually active.  The vaccine will protect boys from certain cancers and genital warts.  I wonder who will be the first to come out and oppose the recommendation.  After all, we can’t have any government entity telling us what to do now, can we!?!?  It’s oppression!!  It’s some kind of governmental control conspiracy!!   Mark my words, you WILL see such comments from the right very soon.   Maybe it’s all a matter of evolution, survival of the fittest.  Pretty soon, all the ignorant, anti-science, right-wing wackos will be extinct through their own refusal to accept recommendations such as these, while us liberal, science-loving, tree-huggin’ wackos will rule the earth because WE were smart enough to immunize our children.

U.S. Security In Peril, $200 billion in proposed weapons cut - One proposal to help the debt reduction committee find $1 trillion in savings over the next decade is to cut spending on nuclear weapons by $200 billion.   $200 billion cut??!?!  How will America survive?!?!?  Those on the right would have you believe this somehow decimates America’s nuclear “deterrent”.  Uh….no.   Cutting $200 billion means we still would spend $500 billion on nuclear weapons over the next century.  HALF A TRILLION dollars spent for a weapon we say we will never use.   I actually wouldn’t mind seeing the debt panel fail, which would trigger the automatic cuts, including cuts to defense.  Political gridlock may be the ONLY thing that gets us to reduce our ridiculous levels of military spending.

Iceland to Plant French Trees to Save Species from Warming – Icelandic and French scientists are discussing a plan to plant French tree species endangered by global warming in Iceland.  Warming temperatures will soon make Iceland’s climate suitable to support some French tree species, which may not be able to adapt to warming temperatures in France.  It’s an interesting plan, and I certainly support efforts to save endangered plant and animal species.  However, I do think efforts like this are better PR moves than they are for long-term conservation planning.  If climate change becomes so extreme that some French tree species begin to die out, the climate shift isn’t a short-term phenomenon.  It would take one hell of a long-term view to plant trees in Iceland with the intention of replanting them in France many centuries in the future.   It’s a nice thought, but the practicality and utility of such plans is pretty questionable.  Unfortunately, the vast majority of plant and animal species are going to have to be able to adapt or migrate on their own.

Top Earners Doubled Share of Income - Over the last 30 years, the top 1% of wage earners had incomes increase 275%.   The bottom 20% of wage earners had incomes only increase a dismal 18%.  As the study notes, government policy is much less redistributive now than 30 years ago, with current tax and other government policies favoring the rich more than they used to.  This study pretty much typifies what Occupy Wall Street is protesting.  I find it laughable that many conservative commentators continue to brush off Occupy Wall Street as a short-term passing fad.  As long as the gap between rich and poor continues to grow, OWS is here to stay.

Repeal the 20th Century – Vote GOP -  I love this column on the Washington Post, by Katrina vanden Heuvel.  I love the reference to an earlier Washington Post column, and the “Repeal the 20th Century – Vote GOP” line.  As vanden Huevel notes, the GOP would not only like to dismantle 20th century social programs such as Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid, but they seem hell-bent on dismantling several decades (or more) of scientific research.  Given how GOP candidates seem to stumble all over themselves trying to see who can sound the most ignorant on climate change and evolution, it wouldn’t surprise me if the eventual GOP winner is the first one to embrace the flat earth theory.

How to end a mid-life crisis?

Grumpy Old Man

A grumpy old man. A grumpy, old, big-headed man. This might as well be a self-portrait. GET OFF MY LAWN, YOU DAD-GUM KIDS!! It's not a bright future for me.

I turned 45 Friday.  Unbelievable.  Of course the primary concern was whether the world would also end that day, as I posted previously.  Thankfully we all seem to have survived Friday, unless this is some kind of weird, “Lost”-like world of Limbo or some alternative reality.    Given that neither of those seems likely, that means that my primary focus as of 12:01 AM Saturday was dealing with the reality of being 45 years old.

I’ve been married 18 years, and have been at my current job for 18 years.  I have the most wonderful little 8-year old boy on the planet.  But yet, I certainly don’t FEEL 45.  Am I the only person who is WELL into adulthood who sometimes doesn’t feel like, well, an adult?  I’ve come a long way from the incredibly shy, awkward high school kid I used to be, to the point where I can now give a lecture or a speech and feel totally confident and comfortable.  But yet, I still sometimes feel like I’m a kid, a kid who has had the clock fast-forwarded 25 years (or more) and is just play-acting.

But I’m definitely NOT a kid!! I’m freakin’ old!!  SERIOUSLY old!!  WELL beyond my youth!!  Turning 30 was a breeze.  I didn’t think twice about turning 40.   But 45?  45 means I’m coming up on 50!!  FIFTY freakin’ years old!!  I’m practically to the age where I’m the old washed-up guy in the back of the meeting room who dozes off at inopportune times!!  This “age” thing is starting to get too damned serious!!!

Terry, meet mid-life crisis.  Mid-life crisis, meet Terry.   Now the question is, how do I cope?  In the short term, I’ve been coping by taking more vacation days than I probably should, and going fishing.  A LOT.  Just yesterday, I got up at 3:15 AM and drove 3+ hours to Oahe Dam and the Missouri River to go fishing all day.  We’ve never had so much fish in our freezer.  Pretty soon the freezer will be full…then what am I to do?  Plan for fishing NEXT year!  As part of my mid-life crisis, I’ve also sent away for catalogs for the latest Lund, Crestliner, Ranger, etc. fishing boats.  I say to myself that a nice new shiny fishing boat would be something my son and I would really enjoy, as he has really gotten into fishing this summer.  While that’s true, I think I also know the boat fascination is more about me, than my son.

But what else am I to do?  How else do you end a mid-life crisis, other than by spending a ridiculous amount of money on something you really don’t need?  Some men go for the Corvette or the Harley…I’m contemplating a nice 16-18 foot Lund fishing boat.  Beyond that, what are my choices?   How else to end the crisis?   Start downing a six-pack during my lunch hour?  Take up sky-diving?   Shave my head?  Man, that would be ugly…I got me one BIIIIIGGG old melon-head.  But I’m afraid that’s where things are headed. 

So if you’re out and about at lunchtime some day, and you see some bald, giant-headed, drunken, sky-divin’ old guy, don’t worry, it’s just me, working through a mid-life crisis.  The good news is, I know this phase can’t last forever!! Especially since I’m now so near the end.  Poor me.   Poor, old, big-headed me.

Why do all GOP tax plans cut taxes for the rich?

Flat Tax

People like the flat tax. It's simple. Perhaps they should learn who benefits under a flat tax, as opposed to a more progressive tax system.

Not to be outdone by Mitt Romney’s 59-point economic plan or Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan, Rick Perry announced his tax reform plan…a 20% flat tax.  He says that people could “choose” whether to keep their current tax rate, or go with the 20% flat tax.  One thing that seems to be the common theme for all of the GOP candidates is that their tax plans give one hell of a nice tax cut for the wealthiest Americans.   This despite continued cries for “shared sacrifice!!” from the right, when they say they need to cut social programs or pay and benefits for government workers.  

The richest Americans now have a marginal tax rate of 35%.   Perry would give them a massive 15% cut in the marginal tax rate.   Note that in the story above, Perry also touts that his plan would end the “death tax” (the estate tax), supposedly to “help farmers and small businesses”.  Bullshit.  Republicans talk about the estate tax as if it primarily affects middle or lower class Americans, when the primary beneficiaries of the abolishment of the estate tax would once again be the rich.  Do you sense a theme here? 

At a time when the Occupy Wall Street movement seems to be continually building, Republicans continue to base their economic plans on Reagan-esque, trickle-down crapola, driven by providing massive tax cuts to the rich.  Do Republicans read the news?  Do they realize the American public is starting to focus on the ever-growing gap between the rich and the poor, and the continual shrinkage of the middle class?   Or are they just counting on the complete ignorance of the American voter (not a bad strategy)? People say they like the “simplicity” of a flat tax, or of Cain’s 9-9-9.   Can the GOP continue to bluff American voters, hoping they won’t wake up until after the election and realize that GOP tax plans all amount to tax cuts for the rich?

Bin Laden, Gadhafi both dead. U.S. Leaving Iraq. Republicans of course criticizing Obama’s foreign policy

Mission Accomplished

Unlike the foreign policy disaster that WAS George Bush, Obama has had incredibly stunning success in the foreign policy arena. And of course, Republicans are crucifying him for it.

First we had an incredibly bold and daring raid to find and kill Bin Laden in Pakistan, a move that took enormous courage for Obama to make.  Mission Accomplished.

Then we had Obama commit to helping rebel forces in Libya, a move which surely saved countless innocent lives when Gadhafi’s forces were first moving against the rebels, and a move which ultimately led to the capture and death of Gadhafi himself.  Mission Accomplished.

Just a few days later, Obama announces that all U.S. combat troops will be leaving Iraq by the end of the year, fulfilling a key pledge he made during his election.  Mission Accomplished.

So of COURSE Republicans were falling all over themselves today to criticize Obama’s Iraq move and his foreign policy credentials.   WTH!?!?!!?  Republicans are CRUSHING Obama in the press for announcing we’re leaving Iraq, calling it yet another failure of Obama’s foreign policy.   IRAQ IS A SOVEREIGN NATION, AND THEY DO NOT WANT US THERE ANY MORE.   There were attempts to negotiate with Iraq to keep some troops on the ground and help with the transition, but the SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENT of Iraq says it’s time for us to leave.  Is 9 years not enough?!?!  Evidently for Republicans, the answer is NO, 9 years is not enough, and we should be staying even longer!!  We have been at war for FAR longer than anyone expected when Bush invaded Iraq.   The American people, the Iraqi people, and the Iraqi government ALL want us out of Iraq.  Evidently someone forgot to CC’ Republicans on that message. 

You can knock Obama for the economy, even though frankly, there’s not a hell of a lot government can do to pull us out of this rut, especially with obstructionist Republicans who block even the most innocent of jobs bills to get Americans working again.   You can knock him for his handling of the environment.  I certainly have, as he’s seemed to continually cave in on environmental issues.  But it’s completely LAUGHABLE for Republicans to be bashing Obama on foreign policy, ESPECIALLY GOP candidates who to a man (or woman) are miserably deficient in terms of ANY foreign policy credentials.

I for one thank you, President Obama, for keeping your campaign promise. I thank you for listening to the people of Iraq, the Iraqi government, and the American people in making this decision.   I’ve not been thrilled with many of your actions since election, but you have done wonders in repairing America’s greatly damaged reputation overseas after the Bush debacle, and have continually shown a terrific knack for making the right foreign policy decisions.  Here’s to you, Mr. Obama….MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.