Monthly Archives: September 2011

Putting Scientists on Trial for Being Wrong

Posted on September 20, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment
Tornado

Putting earthquake scientists on trial for failing to predict an earthquake? What's next? The death penalty for meteorologists who make the wrong forecast?

In what is setting an unbelievably bad precedent, several Italian scientists are on trial for manslaughter.  Their “crime”? Failing to predict a 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy, which killed over 300 people.  The scientists were on an Italian government panel whose task it was to assign potential seismic risks.  After a series of very small earthquakes in L’Aquila, the scientists were asked for an assessment of the risks of a major earthquake.  The scientists generally proclaimed the risk of a major earthquake to be very small.  One week after the proclamation, a 6.9 earthquake hit and leveled the town.

Let’s get this straight…earthquake prediction just simply isn’t possible.  We can assign probabilities for earthquakes.  For example, my beloved U.S. Geological Survey estimates a 25-40% chance of a 6.0 or greater earthquake in the New Madrid fault zone (southeast Missouri,  northeast Arkansas, etc.) over the next 50 years.  They estimate a 7-10% chance of a 7.5 to 8.0 earthquake over the next 50 years.  But in science, especially in such an incredibly inexact science such as earthquake prediction, uncertainty in those estimates must always be considered.

When scientists publish statistical estimates in peer-reviewed literature, they nearly always publish uncertainty figures for those estimates.  I won’t even venture to guess what the uncertainties are for earthquake prediction, except to say that I’m sure they are incredibly large.  Even for a general assignment of future earthquake risk like the New Madrid example above, I’m sure the uncertainty of that very rough estimate is incredibly high.  That uncertainty increases significantly as you try to tighten estimates of when an earthquake may occur, or how strong it may be.   In a case like the L’Aquila earthquake, similar earthquake swarms occur all the time without being followed by a major earthquake.  The scientists involved made their best estimate on the risk of a major earthquake occurring, using the best available science and information. 

Should they be put on trial for being wrong?  Should it be a CRIMINAL OFFENSE for a scientist to be wrong?   I map land-cover change and try to predict future land-cover change for a living.  Should I be thrown in jail if a map I make of land-cover change isn’t 100% correct?  Should my career and very life be ruined if I (GASP!) am WRONG?!?!    SCIENCE IS BUILT ON SOMETIMES BEING WRONG, about theories being disproven, just as much as it is on theories being reinforced by empirical evidence.   When we are proven wrong, we learn.  We adapt our theories.  We improve our state of scientific knowledge.

This is a unique case, and it’s extremely unlikely something similar would happen in the U.S.   But it still sets an incredibly bad precedent, and not just from a legal standpoint.   Putting a scientist on trial for being wrong is the same as putting the concept of science ITSELF on trial.  Such an action completely misrepresents what science is about, something the general public already seems to have a difficult time comprehending.

Posted in Scientific Awareness

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And the Rich get Richer…

Posted on September 19, 2011 by Terry| 2 Comments
U.S. Wealth Gain

Of all wealth gained in the U.S. since 1983, almost 82% went to the richest 5% of Americans, while the poorest people actually lost wealth.

Class warfare.  That’s what John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, and pretty much the entire group of GOP presidential candidates have called Obama’s proposal to (gasp!) tax the rich.   As this story points out though, since 1983, the vast majority of America’s growing wealth went to those who didn’t need it.   An astounding 81.7% of all new wealth generated since 1983 went to the richest 5% of Americans.  ONLY the top 40% of Americans by wealth gained wealth over the period, while the bottom 60% of Americans actually lost wealth since 1983. 

I feel like I’m beating a dead horse lately with the topics I’ve been addressing, but given the news lately, the topic keeps rearing its ugly head.   Wealth inequality in the U.S. continues to grow, the rich do indeed keep getting richer and the poor do indeed keep getting poorer.  But in very dark economic times, when “shared sacrifice” is supposedly needed, we can’t ask the richest Americans to pay their fair share?   An attempt to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, the ONE group the recession hasn’t seemed to harm, is decried as “class warfare” by the GOP?

Don’t shoot the messenger here, but in some ways, you know who is partially to blame for the growing gap between rich and poor?  The working poor themselves.  WAIT!  Let me explain!!  As I’ve stated before out here, I will NEVER understand the motivations that have somehow led to SO many working class Americans to identify themselves as Republicans.   When over a period of many decades, wealth distribution is continually skewed towards the rich, why would SO many working class Americans relate to a party that wants to reduce or eliminate their right to collectively bargain and form unions?  Why would SO many working class Americans relate to a party that supports a tax structure where, as he himself states, Warren Buffett pays the lowest tax rate of anyone in his office, including his lowest paid secretaries? 

Obama tried to change “politics as usual” in Washington.  He spent much of the last 2 years attempting to compromise with Republicans, only to find that Republicans weren’t the slightest bit interested in compromise.  He agreed to extend the Bush tax cuts without asking for anything in return.  He tried to negotiate with Boehner and the GOP over the debt ceiling debacle, and came off the fiasco of a “negotiation” looking very, very weak.   Thank GOD Obama has started to take the gloves off and play hardball.  As he has found out, you simply can’t change the politics in Washington all by yourself.  You can’t attempt to negotiate with those who are unreasonable, and in trying to do so, he just kept coming away with a bloody nose.

With Obama’s jobs program he recently announced, and now with Obama’s stance on long-term deficit reduction, including his threat to VETO any attempt to reduce social welfare programs if tax increases weren’t included in a debt deal, it appears he’s finally realized that the only way to deal with the Republicans is to beat them at their own game.  Obama has learned to call the GOP’s bluff…now we’ll see if the GOP continues to bank on the American public supporting millionaire tax cuts over a more equitable system.

Posted in Politics

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Taxing the Rich "Bad Economics"?

Posted on September 18, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment
Deficit Surplus Graph

A booming economy, and a budget surplus prior to the Bush tax cuts. But Paul Ryan says raising taxes on the rich is "bad economics".

Paul Ryan is (of course) ripping Obama’s plans to raise taxes on the rich.  Ryan says the plan is good politics, but “bad economics”.   One thing I have to admit….Republicans have mastered the ability to control the national political dialogue.  Just 3 years after the recession, Republicans have somehow turned the political discussion away from Wall Street, away from corporate greed, and away from the economic effects of the Bush tax cuts, and focused the entire political debate on the size of government and the supposedly negative impact taxes are having on the economy.

The graph on the top of this NY Times article shows just how much of the deficit is due to the Bush tax cuts.  Simply letting the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012 brings the long-term deficit down to a sustainable level.  How to fix the deficit issue?  LET THE TAX CUTS EXPIRE and the debt issue is largely taken care of.  But yet the Republicans have been able to frame the entire debate on the debt on cutting spending, and have somehow made raising taxes completely off limit.

Clearly the economy did just fine under the tax rates under the Clinton administration.  There was no “uncertainty” or reluctance to hire due to tax rates, as Paul Ryan says will happen if Obama is allowed to raise taxes on the rich.  Poll after poll shows the public as a whole wants a balanced approach to reducing the deficit, including support for raising revenue through higher taxes.  Even a very large majority of Republicans recognize the need to both cut spending and raise taxes.  

What’s very clear…the statement is true that one party’s stance on taxes is “good politics, but bad economics.”  But clearly Ryan and the Republicans should be pointing the finger at themselves, not at Obama and the Democrats.

Posted in Politics

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Perusin' & Musin'

Posted on September 17, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment

Perusin and Musin'Some random thoughts from perusin’ the web…

Our feathered Dinosaurs Friends – Feathers preserved in amber from the end of the Cretaceous period show that at least some dinosaurs were indeed feathered.  “Feathers” & Folly is going to have to expand scope, and I’m going to have to start talking about dinosaurs as well as birds.

Obama – Be prepared to pay “your fair share” to cut deficit – In his Saturday radio address, Obama said Americans must be prepared to pay their fair share to cut the deficit.  That’s called REALITY.   On the other hand, we have John Boehner announcing this week that any new tax increases are off the table for the debt committee.  That’s called DELUSIONAL.   The fight over the debt committee’s work is shaping up to be just as painful as was the fight to raise thte debt limit, as the GOP refuses to acknowledge reality, and refuses to negotiate.

Pat Robertson – Divorce your spouse with Alzheimer’s – Pat Robertson gave advice this week that it’s justifiable to divorce your spouse if they have Alzheimer’s.   So much for Christian values and “till death do us part”.  It’s a horrible situation when a spouse gets Alzheimer’s, but I don’t care if it’s “like death” or not, divorcing a spouse because of an illness sure doesn’t sound “Christian” to me.

U.S. to Veto Palestine State Recognition in U.N. – The Palestinian president is taking his case for recognition of a Palestinian state to the U.N.  For reasons I won’t even pretend to understand, the Obama administration says the U.S. will veto that recognition in the Security Council.  The U.S. has been involved in peace talks between Israel and Palestinians for 20 years, and where has it gotten things?   A U.S. veto will spark Muslim outrage in the Middle East, and further strengthen the Muslim view of the U.S. as a villain and an obstacle to a Palestinian state.

Husker prediction – My prediction for today’s Nebraska game against Washington…After a rather pathetic defensive showing last week, a more fired up defense plays well, slowing down the run enough to be effective, and rattling a young Washington QB making his first start on the road.  On offense, Nebraska again struggles, but makes a few big plays.  Close game going into the fourth quarter, but Nebraska wins by a touchdown.   Nebraska 23, Washington 16

Posted in Perusin' & Musin', Scientific Awareness

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$11,000 Reward for Proof of Michele Bachmann Idiocy!!!

Posted on September 15, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment
Bachmann Perry Wackiness

Perry profited, but the net result was good...thousands of Texas girls vaccinated against HPV. Bachmann goes out of her way to out-wacko her GOP competitors, claiming the vaccine causing mental retardation, despite NO scientific evidence of such a claim.

Michele Bachmann made a claim on Monday’s debate that a woman’s child became mentally retarded after getting the HPV vaccine.  She says she heard it from the mother, so of COURSE it must be true!  So true that it’s worthy of looking like a complete imbecile and talking about it on a nationally televised debate!

The forces of science and logic have struck back in this case, though (THANK GOD!).  There is now an $11,000 reward for someone who can find any kind of proof that the HPV vaccine is in any way correlated with causing mental retardation.  This all became an issue of course because Rick Perry mandated that all young females be given the HPV vaccine in Texas, a view that of COURSE was denounced by the right as stepping over the line.

This is ONE issue, and maybe the ONLY issue, where I actually agree with something Rick Perry did.  There is ample proof that this vaccine can save countless lives by preventing cervical cancer.  But then of course, news comes out that Perry has deep financial ties with the company that makes the vaccine, getting thousands in campaign contributions from the company.   And it also turns out Perry’s former chief-of-staff became a lobbyist for the same company.  Even when Perry does something RIGHT, he did it for all the wrong reasons, and is very deservedly getting blasted from the left for his ties to the company.

But of COURSE that’s not why the RIGHT is blasting Perry!!  No, they’re blasting Perry for the government daring to intervene and tell people to get vaccinated.  Saving lives?  BAH!  Who cares, says the right!!  It’s government intervention into personal privacy!!  But while the rest of the GOP idiots candidates just simply bashed him for the same old tired GOP topic of too much government interference, Bachmann took it MUCH further with this idiotic statement regarding the vaccine supposedly causing mental issues.  The sad thing is just how seriously some folks will take a claim like this, even though it just came completely out of the blue from one completely wacky GOP candidate (ok, they’re ALL wacky).    Claims like this, and anti-vaccine wackos activists like Jenny McCarthy, seem to get a lot of traction in the main press and with the ignorant public, while (as happens WAY too often) the actual scientific evidence for linkages between vaccines and these health issues is just not there.  Michele Bachmann certainly says more than her share of off-the-wall things, but this one, unfortunately, has real potential to cost lives by introducing more anti-vaccine fervor.  She should be ashamed, as should the GOP in general for making the HPV vaccine a political issue.

Posted in Politics

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More Texas Climate Records Fall

Posted on September 14, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment
Perry Rain Prayer

While others in the GOP try to "pray away the gay", Rick Perry tries to "pray away the heat".

Yet more climate records are falling in Texas as record heat and drought continue to bake the state.   Wichita Falls has had an astounding 100 days of 100 degree temperatures this summer.   What’s amazing about the record is that the old record was “only” 79 days of 100 degree temperatures.  From a climate record, and just from a basic statistical standpoint, this summer has truly been well above and beyond normal.  

It’s not just Wichita Falls.  As the story above notes, 15 out of the largest 19 Texas cities have set heat records for most days in triple digits.  Some Texas cities have DOUBLED the record number of triple-digit days…again, an amazing statistical anomaly.  It’s almost as if, oh, I don’t know…some kind of “climate warming” effect is going on or something.  It’s almost as if…call me crazy…there’s some systematic, global climate effect that’s contributing to previously unheard of temperature and precipitation trends.

But, hey, that’s CRAZY, right?  To think that something, oh, say, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning or land-use change, could cause a warming of the climate?  RIDICULOUS!!!  I think the best course of action mankind could possibly take is to follow in Texas Governor Rick Perry’s shoes, and pray for rain and lower temperatures.

All together now…close your eyes…put your arms down at your sides…and, while clicking your heels together 3 times, repeat after me…”There’s no place for climate change science…There’s no place for climate change science…there’s no place for….

Image above from Blue Herald…

Posted in Climate Change

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Letting uninsured die…unfortunately not hypothetical

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment
Uninsured Rate

50 million uninsured in the U.S., but if the Tea Party has their way, many may be dead soon! That will also help our unemployment rate!

My last blog post was on the crowd reaction (and Ron Paul reaction) to Wolf Blitzer following up on a health care question by asking if the uninsured should just be allowed to die if they are ill.  As the news today shows, that unfortunately isn’t a hypothetical question from Blitzer, as the number of uninsured in the U.S. has grown to nearly 50 million.  Not only is unemployment an issue for the American worker, but so is health care coverage, as the percentage of employers that even offer health insurance to their employees continues to drop, as does the amount employers themselves pay if insurance is offered.

50 million uninsured, in what we ourselves supposedly think is the greatest and most powerful country on the planet?   A 2009 Harvard study found 45,000 people die in the U.S. every year due to lack of health insurance.  The same study found those without health insurance have an overall 40% higher risk of death than the insured.   But still, we have the Tea Party and seemingly every GOP candidate railing against ObamaCare.  God forbid we try to insure people and ensure equal access to health care for every American.   After all, it’s MUCH more important for Tea Party Joe down the street to have an extra $30 in his paycheck so he can afford an extra case of beer a week, than it is for an uninsured mother to be able to get that lump in her breast checked out.

Posted in Politics

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Tea Party – Let the uninsured sick die!!

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Terry| 1 Comment
Ron Paul

Cover the uninsured? Or let them die? For the Tea Party, it's the latter.

Compassionate Conservatism?  Is that what now drives the right-wing of the GOP?  Uh….no.  That much was ABUNDANTLY obvious when watching the GOP debate last night.   Wolf Blitzer at one point asked Ron Paul whether society should let a sick man in a coma who had no life insurance just die, rather than pay for his care.  Ron Paul’s answer was sickening enough, in that he skated around directly answering, but basically said “we need to learn to take care of ourselves”, and that religious institutions and other non-government groups could “pick up the slack”.   It was about as much of a “yes” as he could give, without directly saying the word. 

Sickening, but nothing like the chilling response vocalized by some of the crowd that was heavy with Tea Party sentiment.  When Blitzer asked the question, several in the crowd yelled out “YES!”, that the sick man SHOULD just be left to die if he had no insurance.  THIS is what the right has become.  Our tax burden is relatively low compared to other Western societies, but the Tea Party and libertarian wing of the GOP much prefer cutting taxes by a drastic amount, rather than “wasting” that money on things like the sick, poor, and underprivileged.

A sickening, sickening moment.  But sadly, a moment that typifies where the Tea Party has taken the Republican party.  The “Religious Right” is a complete JOKE as a component of the Republican Party.  Sure, the right is GREAT at whining about the need for more Christian-based “values” in government.  But for the right, Christian-based values somehow no longer have ANYTHING to do with real morality.  They can whine about not teaching creationism in school.  They can whine about prayer in school or government.  But when it comes right down to it, the right as a whole doesn’t give a damn about helping the poor, or the sick.   All they care about is their own personal satisfcation, their own personal GREED, their own personal standard of living. 

If you are a member of the “Religious Right”, a group that somehow identifies itself with the Republican Party, you’d damn well better be sick to your stomach on where your party is going.  That is, if you REALLY believe in your Christian values.  Walk the freakin’ walk, and stop the madness that is taking over the GOP.

Posted in Politics

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Why bother negotiating with the GOP?

Posted on September 12, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment
Crying Baby Boehner

John Boehner, crying when he and his GOP colleagues don't get their way.

As part of the agreement negotiated between the GOP and Democrats to raise the debt ceiling was an agreement on overall funding for the fiscal 2012 budget…$1.043 trillion.   So what does John Boehner and the GOP try to do as the House and Senate work on FY 2012 spending bills for the U.S.?  Ignore the agreed upon budget amount, and instead try to cut yet more.    So much for the negotiated level of funding for 2012!  It’s yet more of the “our way or the highway” approach that the GOP has adopted.  They are simply INCAPABLE of bipartisanship.  They are simply INCAPABLE of good-faith negotiation.  They are simply INCAPABLE of governing a nation.

I’m glad to see the Democrats are FINALLY starting to play hardball in return.  First we had Obama with his fiery speech on his jobs bill, where he practically dared the GOP to vote against it.   And today, in response to Boehner’s BS in the House, Harry Reid forced the GOP to vote AGAINST funding for disaster relief, something the GOP said they would oppose unless cuts were made elsewhere, but embarrassing for the GOP nonetheless to vote against disaster relief when so many are struggling to cope with the recent disasters on the East Coast and elsewhere.

After the embarrassing positions taken by Boehner today, there did appear to be some backtracking, with Boehner eventually saying that they will likely end up funding at the $1.043 trillion level for 2012.   HOPEFULLY, this is the start of the Democrats SHOWING SOME FREAKIN’ BACKBONE, and stop giving in to GOP attempts at legislative or political blackmail.

Posted in Politics

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Snapshot of Human Evolution

Posted on September 11, 2011 by Terry| Leave a comment
Human Evolution

Yet another fossil to help fill in the evolutionary pathway of humanity. Yet more evidence creationists will simply ignore.

The find of bones in South Africa from a newly identified primitive pre-human, Australopithicus sediba, has been described as “a snapshot of evolution in action”, and a “strong confirmation of evolutionary theory”.   The unique find has features that seem to be intermediate between ape and human, including a brain with human features, although much smaller.  

As this story notes, those who choose to ignore all logic and evidence and disbelieve in evolution constantly point to the lack of a “missing link”, some intermediate form that clarifies the evolutionary link to prior ape-like forms.  However, it’s not as if there has been a lack of fossil evidence regarding human ancestry, or a lack of fossil evidence pointing to likely evolutionary pathways for other creatures.  The fossil record is replete with evidence that supports the theory of evolution.  So, despite this fossil find being described as a “game-changer” in terms of our ancestry, I have NO doubt that creationist wackos will simply ignore it or somehow explain it away, just as they ignore all the other scientific evidence.

Part of it is simply a complete misunderstanding of science in general.  At the end of this article, it talks about the fossil find forcing scientists to re-evaluate previous concepts regarding how we evolved.  Creationist wackos will likely point to any “re-evaluation” as evidence of the weakness of the theory.  They simply don’t understand the concept of scientific theory in general, as creationists often seem to take delight that evolution is “just” thought of as a theory, not “fact”.   Gravity is “just” a theory as well, another theory we’re continually re-evaluating and tweaking, which makes me believe that if gravity were discussed in the Bible, there would be just as many gravity-doubters as there seem to be evolution-doubters.

Posted in Evolution/Creationism

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