Category Archives: Climate Change

Climate Change and Hummingbird Migration – With Great Photo!

Ruby-throated Hummingbird

Ruby-throated Hummingbird feeding at a honeysuckle plant. In Brandon, South Dakota. On June 9th, 2008. At someone's front porch. With a guy grilling hamburgers nearby. Just a hunch...

Jason Courter from Taylor University, along with his co-authors, published research that examined the migration of the Ruby-throated Hummingbird, finding the birds are moving north earlier than they did historically.  The birds are arriving back in North America 12 to 18 days earlier than they did prior to 1970.  Overshadowing the research itself is of course the incredible, fantastic photo that has accompanied the story that’s been carried by the popular press.  The photo is of a male Ruby-throated Hummingbird hovering in front of an orange honeysuckle bloom.  I happen to have very, very personal knowledge that the photo was taken from the front porch of a private home in Brandon, South Dakota, in between the grilling of hamburgers  (just a hunch).

It is cool to have a photo in a science story like this, a story that’s been picked up by AP and has shown up in a number of news outlets, including overseas in The Guardian and elsewhere.  But of course it’s the science itself that is the cool story here.  The research isn’t the first to show that migration dates have changed in the last century, presumably in response to climate change.  It is yet another very strong piece of evidence that indicates our climate is changing, and that natural ecosystems are evolving to adapt.

Nice story, and the research article is definitely worth reading if you can get a copy.  It is published in The Auk, the journal of the American Ornithologists Union.

Video – Human Impact on the Atmosphere

New York - Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Video produced as part of a study for Mayor Bloomberg's office in New York City. This screen capture from the video shows how much carbon dioxide is emitted from New York EVERY DAY. That's the Empire State Building sticking out of the top.

One of the arguments often made by conservatives, especially religious conservatives, is that man simply can’t affect the atmosphere enough to be causing global warming.  There are many on the religious right who believe mankind doesn’t have the power to change the planet to that degree, that only God has the ability to control the Earth and its environment. 

This is a great video to help folks understand the impact human beings have on the environment:

New York City – Carbon Dioxide Emissions Video

The video was produced as part of a study by Mayor Bloomberg’s office, on the long-term effects of carbon emissions.  It’s one thing to explain to people just how much carbon dioxide people emit.  It’s another to graphically depict exactly how large one ton of carbon dioxide is, and the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide over time.

Striking video…even more striking when you consider this just depicts carbon dioxide emissions for one city, over what’s a blink of an eye in terms of the Earth’s history.  When you imagine the emissions depicted in this video, multiplied millions of times over from emissions all over the planet, year after year, it’s hard to deny that human beings are significantly impacting the earth’s atmosphere.  It’s impossible to deny that human beings are the cause of global warming.

The “Real” Obama – Repubs, you have nothing to fear

Barack Obama

Barack Obama - Moderate Republican. At least that's a label that's been placed on him by multiple pundits. Republicans, you have nothing to fear. Obama isn't driving America over some "liberal cliff". As his comments on climate change today have shown, the man is a moderate in every sense of the word.

Over the last four years, there has been a lot of Republican speculation about the “real” Obama, this monster of a man who would soon emerge and lead the U.S. down the path of socialism.

Uh…no.  You have absolutely nothing to fear, Republicans.  Andrew Sullivan of the Daily Beast said as much when he went on the Colbert Report on the night of the election.  The Daily Beast runs towards the liberal side, but Sullivan is a self-professed conservative, albeit a conservative who was extremely unhappy where Republicans have taken the party.  As Sullivan stated, Republicans should be happy about the election…a “Moderate Republican” won.  He’s not the only one to say so.  William Saletan at Slate.com also ran a story the day after the election, saying Republicans should cheer up because they have a moderate Republican in office for the next four years…Barack Obama.

Democrats have certainly been disappointed in Obama on a number of issues.  Yes, he kept his first campaign promises on health care and on ending the wars.  But Obama also has failed to close Guantanamo, hasn’t addressed immigration reform, and has caved on a number of environmental issues.  During the campaign, the issue of climate change was notable…notably absent, that is, from any discussion during the campaign or during the debates.  During Obama’s victory speech on the night of the election, he gave a passing nod to the issue of climate change, noting the dangers of a warming planet.  That line got him a very loud ovation…but…climate change simply wasn’t much of an issue this election, even for Obama.

Yesterday during his press conference, Obama came out and said that climate change is NOT a priority for him, that it will take a back seat to the economy.   In the press conference, he stated that it’s important, that it’s a tough issue, but that it would take “tough political choices” for it to be addressed.

In other words…Obama is punting on climate change.  At this stage, I honestly don’t think it matters.  There’s no going back.  We’ve already set the wheels in motion for severe climate change.  Even if by some miracle there was a global epiphany and humanity decided to immediately cut back carbon emissions, climate change is going to march merrily ahead for the nest few centuries.

However, once again, Obama has disappointed liberals.  Once again, Obama is showing that Republican pundits’ comments that Obama is “the most liberal president in America’s history” are complete BS.   You have nothing to fear, Republicans.  Obama isn’t going to take the country down some radical liberal path.  He’s an obvious moderate…and even for a hard-core liberal like myself, I think that’s just what we need right now, someone who can straddle the fence and try to bridge the gap between the two “sides” the nation has seemingly split into.

Now…Republicans just have to join the real world, and see Obama for the true moderate that he is.

Arctic Ice-free in 4 years?

Hairy Old White Men

This is it!! The LAST American presidential election where fucked up, greedy, "Hairy Old White Men" like those running the Republican Party can ever deny the reality of climate change.

I haven’t blogged about climate change in many months.  I guess it’s because I don’t even think about it any more.  No, not from the James Inhoffe viewpoint, sticking my ignorant head in the ground and ignoring the issue.  No, I don’t think about it because it’s a fact of life, just like the sun rising every morning.  It’s happening, it’s relentlessly marching on, and at this stage, there’s absolutely nothing we can do to stop it.  We’ve dug our grave…

But even as a scientist who knows the science behind climate change, I find the pace of change truly shocking.  I find stories like this one truly shocking.   It’s been a given that Arctic  sea ice has been shrinking, but the pace of decline has outpaced even the most dire of predictions.  Last week, it was officially announced that the Arctic sea ice was at its lowest level ever…and there were still a few weeks left in the melt season.  What’s really shocking are the numbers, compared to just 30 years ago.

By area, Arctic sea ice covers 45% less area today than it did over the 1979 to 2000 average.  HALF of Arctic sea ice gone, in the blink of a geologic eye.  It’s even more shocking when you look at volume of sea ice, as it’s not just area that’s declined precipitously, it’s the volume of the remaining ice.  The remaining ice continues to deteriorate in quality and thickness, and now is down an astounding 72% from the 1979 to 2000 average.  THREE-QUARTERS of all Arctic ice…gone in one generation.

As the story above states, the pace of decline is outpacing all projections, and it’s now quite possible that in just 4 years, the Arctic will be completely ice-free in the summer.

The “good” news, I guess, if there is any?  This could very well be the VERY last presidential election where one completely fucked up American political party denies the reality of climate change.  Four summers from now, when ships are freely plowing across the Arctic Ocean without any pesky ice to stop them, it will be awfully damned hard for the greedy, ignorant, short-sighted SOB’s on the right to deny the reality of climate change. Of course, by then it will also be too late to do anything about it…since right NOW, it’s too late to do anything about it.

Legislating away climate change

Earth on Fire

Anthropogenic effects on climate change? GONE!! Legislated away by the BRILLIANT (as always) Republicans in the North Carolina legislature. WHY in the hell didn't we think of doing this a long time ago??!!?

I don’t know whether to laugh, or cry.  Sometimes the complete idiocy (and greed) of human beings initiates both reactions at the same time.  Take the case of North Carolina law makers this week…

If you haven’t seen it, take the time to watch Stephen Colbert’s slant to this story.  It seems that a North Carolina coastal economic development group isn’t happy with scientists.  Darn pesky scientists…they had the GALL to predict that sea level rise would be greater than 3 feet by 2100.  It makes it a LOT harder to sell coastal real estate or convince companies to locate on the North Carolina coast, when all the evidence and science in the world points to that land being underwater in 50 or so years.

So…the economic development group has partnered with Republican (of course!) lawmakers in the state to basically outlaw science!!  The businesspeople and Republican lawmakers simply are saying that scientists are wrong, and that you should ONLY look at what’s happened in the past, to predict future climate change.  None of this fretting over CO2 levels that just reached 400 ppm!!  No fretting about accelerating warming in the polar regions that will melt ice like butter in a blast furnace!! Nah….it’s the REAL ESTATE industry that REALLY knows climate science!!!

So, they’re crafting legislation that would effectively legislate away climate change science!  They would make it North Carolina LAW that any climate projections affecting policy in the state would assume that sea-level rise will simply occur at historical levels, and won’t accelerate as global warming ramps up. 

Simple! Problem solved!  We scientist…SO, so silly, worrying about gathering evidence, analyzing the data, and spitting out facts and figures.  All we really need to do is legislate science away!  Think of the possibilities!  What if the Yellowstone caldera should get frisky and threaten to erupt again?  No need for scientists to study it…just pass a law outlawing the volcano from erupting!  Giant asteroid headed on a collision course with earth?  No problem!! Just legislate it away!!

Unbelievable.  It DOES perfectly represent what the Republican Party represents, however.  After all, we CAN’T have science interfere with real estate and business! If science is butting heads with business interests, is there ever ANY doubt on which side of the argument Republicans will land?   We’ve seen this story a hundred times in other forms…fracking and polluting water supplies, endangered species habitat vs. development, air quality vs. power company lobbyists…it’s the same story every time.  What’s so pathetic is that I’m sure Republican VOTERS in North Carolina are swallowing this hook, line, and sinker, and APPLAUDING their hillbilly legislators for this bold move.

To laugh?  Or to cry?  With each move Republicans make like this, it’s getting harder and harder to laugh about it.

Humanity and Climate Change – Cartoon by Stephanie McMillan

Cartoon - Stephanie McMillan

This pretty much sums up how humanity is facing climate change. Here in the U.S., our OWN efforts are the most embarrassing, but hey, at least we're honest! We don't even go to the trouble of PRETENDING we care. Cartoon by Stephanie McMillan, from "Code Green".

A cartoon (Stephanie McMillan – Code Green) that pretty much sums up the world’s “resolve” for tackling climate change.  I blame basic biology…

We’re animals.  We have the same biologic factors driving our behavior as do animals.  We’d LIKE to say that we’ve evolved beyond that.  We’re very good at ACTING as if the “good of mankind” is an important factor that drives our behavior.  But when push comes to shove…we’re selfish little biological creatures with an overwhelming desire to personally survive and thrive. 

Hence my reason for liking this cartoon.  Even amongst the nations that act as if they care about climate change ( a group that sadly does NOT include the U.S.), there’s a lot SAID about reducing carbon emissions.  There’s a lot SAID about changing how we use the land.  But…emissions continue to rise.  Forests continue to be destroyed.  And atmospheric CO2 levels continue to skyrocket.

Even amongst those who seemingly DO “care”, efforts are typically feeble.  There are some very good-hearted people who run some of the conferences I go to for work, who allow you to donate to “carbon offset” funds, where perhaps a tree may be planted to offset the cost of your traveling to the conference.  Sounds good, but…c’mon.  It’s not worth a hill of beans, in terms of affecting atmospheric CO2.  It’s kind of like voting…individual human beings can do it, can (and should) feel good about doing it…but when push comes to shove, any one person’s vote just typically doesn’t matter much by itself.  And even if every conference in the world would do this, the impact would still be negligible.

It’s only when humanity as a whole “cares” that any real change occurs.  However…people are greedy, selfish lil’ biological creatures.  Thinking 100 years down the road?  Not important for the vast majority of people, who are much more concerned that they have the latest and greatest cell phone, that they have a house and car more impressive than their friends and neighbors, and they enjoy the NOW as much as possible.  Heck, even thinking one generation down the road seems to be too much to ask.  Given how people treat the environment, it’s quite obvious that they are very happy to destroy the very environment their children will depend upon, all for the sake of their OWN short-term desires.

It’s tough to overcome basic biology. We’re just animals, fighting over that last bone like a pack of wolves…

Warmest Spring – Ever

NOAA released some statistics this week showing that this was the warmest spring on record in the United States.   Average temperatures in the lower 48 were an astounding 5.2 degrees warmer than average.  That 5.2 degree deviance was the largest EVER deviation from normal temperatures, for any season, ever in the United States.  The last 12 months have been the warmest 12 months EVER for the United States.  EACH of the three spring months of March, April, and May had temperatures in the top-10 warmest ever for those months….the first time that’s ever happened.  EVERY state, other than Washington, has had above-average temperatures over the last year.

Just more in a long line of temperature records in recent decades.   I haven’t posted anything on climate change for quite some time.  A a scientist, for me, given the actual scientific evidence, it’s an extremely obvious fact of life that climate change is occurring.  As such, I guess it’s not a big story to me any more when news like this comes out…it’s EXPECTED in my mind.  The evidence doesn’t lie.  Climate change isn’t going away…it’s a simple fact of life, just like the sun rising in the morning.

But then I remember that hey, this is America.  Science doesn’t mean anything to a good chunk of the population.  Science has been replaced by political or religious ideology for FAR too many people…one factor that’s leading to the decline of America as the world’s leader in science.   When some new data comes in, such as the spring temperature numbers for the U.S., perhaps I SHOULD make a bigger deal out of the data…not for my OWN sake, but for the sake of all the wackos out there who refuse to acknowledge what’s happening right before their very eyes.

I’m 45.  In my lifetime, I’m not concerned that climate change will make the earth uninhabitable.  In my lifetime, I’m only a little concerned that there will be drastic social and political upheaval due to climate change.  But…I also have a 9-year old son.  In HIS lifetime?  I have NO doubt that climate change will have a profound impact in the second half of his life. 

So…when numbers like this come out…when there are reports of Arctic sensors detecting 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere for the first time ever…I SHOULD make a big deal out of it.  Not that the wackos will listen…which I find puzzling. 

I care about the world my son will inherit.  I’m not sure anymore that most Americans care about ANYTHING, other than their own personal, short-term satisfaction.

Perusin’ & Musin’

Some random thoughts from perusin’ the web:

Obama Caught with Open Mic - In a story the GOP is sure to play up from now through the election, Obama was caught saying something to Russian president Medvedev about the European missile defense system, asking the Russian to give him “space” on the issue until after the election.  It’s not exactly surprising to hear that when (seemingly) out of the range of an open mic, this is how a politician would talk.  There’s no doubt Republicans will act indignant on the story, and will righteously declare that all Obama cares about is getting re-elected, and is just playing politics until the election.  And…they’re probably right.  Obama can take heart though that 1) Republicans are JUST as apt to put politics over the welfare of the country, and 2) in the short news cycles we have, it’s only a matter of time before Romney makes a verbal gaffe and pushes this off the front pages.  The real losers in all of this are all the voters. I can already picture scads of Republican ads this fall that feature this Obama comment, just as I can already see scads of Democratic ads this fall that feature stupid Romney comments.

When do plants know to bloom in Spring? - This story is definitely relevant this spring!  Interesting read if you get a chance.  We’ve already got things blooming here, in South Dakota, in March, in response to the incredibly warm weather we’re having.  There have even been Hummingbirds spotted in adjacent states of Nebraska and Minnesota!  I don’t usually see them at my house until the first week of May! But as this story notes, for some plants, day length doesn’t matter, temperature alone can trigger blooming. As such…my hummingbird feeder is going up this week!!  Who knows??

Tim Tebow welcomed in New York - Few things bother me more in life than our incredibly shallow American culture, and what passes for being a “celebrity”.  We have “celebrities” who have done nothing more than be participants in a “reality” (hah!) TV show, or are simply famous for being complete jackasses.   In the sports world, the artificial nature of being a “celebrity” was quite obvious over the past week, when the Denver Broncos signed Peyton Manning to be their QB, and subsequently traded Tim Tebow to the New York Jets.  Manning is a Super Bowl winner and an NFL MVP.  Tim Tebow?  He was one of the poorest rated quarterbacks in the NFL last year.  But yet, the stories have at LEAST been 5 to 1 about Tebow instead of about Manning.  Tebow to me is one of those “artificial” celebrities, now that his college career is well in the past.  He CERTAINLY doesn’t deserve the attention for what he’s accomplished on the field in the NFL.  He gets attention simply because of his very public, very over-the-top profession of his religious faith.  In America…THAT’s what gets you noticed…acting outside-the-box.  Peyton Manning’s accomplishments?  Unimportant compared to Tebow’s unusual personal life.  I wish I could say it was just sports, but this story is a microcosm of America in general.  Working hard and achieving great things in your line of work?  That’ll get you nowhere!! What you NEED is a viral video! What you NEED is to be a wacky, vocal jackass!  THAT’S the kind of thing that gets you noticed in today’s America!

Supreme Court Tackles Obamacare - The Supreme Court today started hearing arguments regarding the legality of ObamaCare.   In a poll, 56% of Americans believe Supreme Court Justices will rule according to their own personal politics, while only 27% believe that ObamaCare will be judged according to the law.   I can’t say as I disagree.  What’s always baffled me…why SUPREME COURT JUSTICES are either categorized as “Liberal” or “Conservative”.  Isn’t the LAW above politics?  Why the HELL should LAW be judged according to one’s own personal politics?  Are American laws SO poorly written, are they SO open to personal interpretation, that Supreme Court decisions are (seemingly) always split according to perceived political persuasion of the Justices?   In the end, what I FULLY expect…a 5-4 decision to repeal the mandate component of Obamacare. Why?  Not because of any legal precedent or ruling.  No, I expect a 5-4 ruling to repeal much of Obamacare, simply because 5 current justices are considered “Conservative”.  Hey…I TELL you that I’m a CYNICAL scientist.  Unfortunately, when it comes to my cynicism in matters such as this, I also have a hell of a lot of evidence to back me up.

British Petroleum, you owe me $71.91 in Cherries!!!!

Cherries

Yummmmmm...Cherries. COMPLETELY due to the actions of British Petroleum, I am in danger of losing a 2nd straight cherry crop this spring.

It’s 7:30 pm.  It’s March 12th.  I live in South Dakota.  Despite these three facts, I just got back from walking the dog, wearing just jeans and a t-shirt.   It just continues what has been a remarkably warm and mild winter.  I look at the forecast for the next 10 days, and all I see are highs in the 60s and 70s, approaching 80 on some days(!!!).  The LOWEST temperature predicted for the next 10 days is 37, tonight.  After that, there are no days predicted with lows below 42 degrees.  MARCH…SOUTH DAKOTA…STILL WINTER…and yet there are no temperatures predicted to even APPROACH freezing for the next 10 days.  Remarkable.

And how does that relate to British Petroleum (BP), or cherries?   Good question!  As I got back from my walk, I noticed that my hostas next to the house are starting to poke their heads out of the ground.  Have I mentioned this is early March?  Have I mentioned this is South Dakota?  I usually consider May 12th, 2 MONTHS from now, too early to plant, as we’re still likely to get frosts after that date.  But here we are on March 12th, and I have perennials starting to poke out.  And therein lies the relationship to cherries.  I have 3 cherry trees in the backyard.  Given the weather, I have NO doubt that my cherry crop will suffer the same fate it suffered last year.  Last year we had a warm stretch in the spring, followed by the typical frosts.  I lost the blooms on my cherries, and didn’t have a single cherry on any of my three trees.  Given the incredibly warm weather we’re having now, once again, I think I’m likely to lose my cherry crop, as we will inevitably get more hard freezes after this very early warm weather.

And hence the link to BP!  Ok, it doesn’t necessarily have to be just BP, it could be Exxon, Shell, or any other oil company.  I’m using them as a scapegoat, as a representative, of all the fossil fuel producing corporations.  I’m a scientist.  I know I can’t directly relate the record-breaking warmth we’re having to global warming.  One warm stretch can’t be directly attributable to climate.  But this will be the SECOND year in a row I will be cherry-less!!  Still not enough to attribute to global warming, but I don’t care!  I’m panicking!!  I’m distraught!  No cherries!! No fresh cherry pie!! No cherry preserves!! No working in the back yard and snarfing down on fresh cherries!!

I am choosing to blame BP, in lieu of blaming all of humanity.   I therefore am sending an invoice to BP for damages.  If I am not paid in FRESH CHERRIES (to heck with the cash, give me the cherries, BP!), I will sue!!   My list of damages are as follows:

- 10 pounds of fresh cherries from this year’s crop (I just have 3 little trees right now).   At $3.99 a pound, that comes to $39.99.

- 8 pounds of fresh cherries from last year’s crop.  My small trees were even smaller last year, hence 2 pounds less of an estimated “crop”.  Damage estimate – $31.92

- 1 destroyed cherry tree.  I USED to have four cherry trees in the back yard.  Last spring, we had a monster of a windstorm, and one of my little cherry trees just snapped in two, right at the base.  Research has shown that global warming will cause an increase in destructive storm events.  It’s just one storm, but…I don’t care!!  BP, I am blaming you!!!! Damage estimate – $129.99 (that’s roughly how much the trees cost).

- Pain and suffering.  Can you imagine anything in the world that’s more traumatic than looking out your window during a thunderstorm, and seeing one of your prize cherry trees snap in two?  Well…OK, so can I.  But I was suffering for a few minutes there!!  Damages – $7.58.  

If my math is correct, I therefore am owed $71.91 worth of fresh cherries, plus $137.57 in cold hard cash to replace my destroyed cherry tree, and for pain and suffering!!  BP!  Consider this blog post to be an invoice!!  You have 30 days to submit payment, or my crack team of lawyers will be in touch!!!

Oceans acidifying at fastest rate in 300 million years

Earth on Fire

Climate change skeptics...it's not just the temperature change, the measurable change in atmospheric composition, or the measurable change in ocean acidity. It's the completely unprecedented RATE of change that points to a human hand behind today's climate change.

Those that try to deny climate change is occurring, or try to deny that humans are influencing climate change, point to changes in atmospheric composition, temperature, or other climate related variables that have occurred in the past.  Climate change idiots skeptics point out that temperature increases have occurred in the past, or that carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere have occurred in the past.  All true, but what they purposely do not address is the RATE of change that is occurring.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have skyrocketed since the industrial revolution.  In geologic time, it’s a blink of an eye, rising from 280 parts per million to nearly 400 ppm today.  Over the past 500,000 years ago, carbon dioxide levels have naturally fluctuated…but only in a range between about 200 and 300 ppm.  Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels today are likely the highest they’ve been in over 20 million years. 

Again, however, climate change idiots skeptics point out that atmospheric carbon dioxide rates were much higher in the far distant past.  It’s true, as CO2 levels in the atmosphere were once much higher than they are even today.   Besides the fact that the earth’s climate when CO2 levels were once 600 ppm or higher wouldn’t be very conducive to support today’s massive human population, the point that climate change idiots skeptics miss is the incredibly rapid rate of change over the past 200 years.  It’s not just that today’s atmospheric CO2 levels are so historically high compared to the last 20 million years, it’s the astonishing rate of increase over just a 200 year period, a period that just happens to correspond perfectly to industrialization and the widespread use of fossil fuels.

Last week Science published a paper that talked about effects increased atmospheric CO2 are having on ocean acidity, stating that oceans today are acidifying at the fastest rate in at least 300 million years.  As the authors of the paper note, “What we’re doing today really stands out in the geologic record.”   It’s impossible to deny the correlation between human impacts on land-use change and use of fossil fuels, and the incredibly rapid increase in atmospheric CO2.  This study on ocean acidification further strengthens the empirical evidence linking human activity with an unprecedented rate of change in atmospheric and ocean chemistry.  

I’m sure climate change idiots skeptics (and industry and politicians on the right who back them) are hard at work behind the scenes right now, trying to come up with a way to dispute the findings in this paper.  From a scientific standpoint, you keep waiting for the day when the empirical evidence is so overwhelming that even climate change idiots skeptics can’t deny it any more.   Hell, the evidence ALREADY is so overwhelming that any rational human being can’t deny it.  Unfortunately we are either a) not dealing with rational human beings, or b) those in industry or those with political motivations for denying climate change KNOW it’s happening, but are purposely trying to distort the truth for their own political or economic gain.  The latter is obviously true, as I have NO doubt that those in the fossil fuel industries KNOW climate change is occurring, and that we are to blame. I have NO doubt that politicians will PUBLICLY act like climate-change deniers, actually know the truth but are lying for political gain.