Category Archives: Scientific Awareness

Run for your lives! It’s a “Derecho”!!!

Derecho Climatology

Run for your lives, citizens of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and elsewhere in the Midwest! CNN and MSNBC have "predicted" catastrophic "Derecho" events!! This, despite history noting how rare these events are, and the MINISCULE likelihood of a catastrophic Derecho actually occurring today.

It’s been in another life, back when I was an undergraduate at the University of Nebraska, but my bachelor’s degree was in meteorology.  In my last year as an undergrad, I took a “remote sensing” (basically satellite imagery) course and fell in love with it.  Because of that I ended up going to grad school in Geography, and ended up working for the USGS.  My life as a meteorologist was thus a short 4 years as an undergrad before I moved on to a different career path.  Given what, to me, has been an INCREDIBLY fast 23 years or so since then, at this stage I could, at best, only be deemed a marginal meteorologist.

However, I certainly still know the main concepts of meteorology, enough to read the “scientific forecast discussion” that’s in small print on the weather forecasts, to read the notes of the meteorologists.  I still follow the weather closely, and in times of severe weather, am a severe weather ”junkie”.   I thus found it rather funny, and rather maddening, to see the headlines on MSNBC (still prefer term that over NBC news), and later, on CNN today, talking about the impending severe weather threat, with ominous phrases of the coming of the “Feared Derecho“.

What’s that?  Haven’t heard of a “Derecho“?  Your local weatherman doesn’t use the term when he gives his forecast?  I would bet the house that the term “Derecho” never had appeared on the MSNBC or CNN web pages before today.  However, today, the fine “journalists” for these two news outlets decided to make “Derecho” the term of the day, warning of the feared consequences of a weather phenomenon most people likely have never heard of.

The stories today on MSNBC and CNN played up the potentially deadly consequences of a Derecho, and noted that it could be possible that such an event could slam the Midwest today.  They then noted the potentially dire consequences, with catastrophic damage and casualties possible.  OK, sure, actually PREDICTING such a rare event is something even meteorologists would avoid, but that didn’t stop these fine “journalists” from playing the “story” up all day today.

I get it.  After the Oklahoma tornadoes that have occurred over the last several weeks, severe weather stories are hot right now.  They are likely to attract a lot of readers.  However, I find it more than just a little irresponsible for a “news” outlet like MSNBC or CNN to make it sound like there’s an impending Derecho, and to make it the HEADLINE STORY for much of the day, despite the very tiny chance of such a weather event having a big impact today, or even occurring at all for that matter.

I’ve had both my wife and a colleague at work independently note the ridiculous, sensationalist headlines on the CNN.com front pages over the last week.  Stories about violence in Turkey are interspersed with fluff about pop culture, or even worse, BS stories such as this “Derecho” story that are simply trying to play off the recent severe weather, and off of people’s fears.

I just don’t bother spending much time on CNN, MSNBC, Fox News (duh), or other mainstream “news” sites any more.  It seems that at least 2/3rds of their “journalists” are devoted to sensationalist fluff pieces. Give me the Washington Post and the New York Times, and I’m good to go with the REAL news.  Hell, give me a good BLOG and I feel better informed than I do after reading any of the main “news” sites.

Give it a rest, MSNBC and CNN.  The entire upper Midwest is NOT in danger of being wiped off the face of the planet tonight due to a rare meteorological phenomenon that 99% of people haven’t ever heard of.   How about returning to report the actual NEWS for a change?

Website – USGS EROS Land-cover Modeling

FORE-SCE Example

Finally. About 8 years after starting work on our own modeling framework and using it to project the Earth's land-cover out into the future, we have our own, official, dedicated USGS website.

Finally.  A website. 

USGS Land-Cover Modeling Website

This will be my 20th year working at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.  OK…USGS EROS for short.  For the first 12 or so years, I primarily worked on the mapping of land cover (what’s on the surface of the Earth, such as “agriculture”, “urban”, Forest”, “wetland”, etc.), and analyzing land-use change, using satellite imagery.  About 8 years ago, we started work on taking the concept forward into the future, projecting what the landscape of the Earth will look like at some future date.  Over the years, I led the development of a new land-cover modeling framework, the “FORE-SCE” model (FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change).  FORE-SCE?  Get it?  We’re “FORE-SCE-ing” the future!!

It’s been fun over the last 8 years, and our modeling work has gotten quite a bit of attention.  However, that attention has all come from publications in the literature.  We haven’t had a website!  Until yesterday, when we finally had an official USGS website go active for the modeling work.

USGS Land-cover Modeling Website

Pretty simple so far, but it gives you an idea of what we do, has a few little tools to show “before” and “after” maps of land-cover, and lets you download some of our land-cover projection data that we’ve produced.  Excited to FINALLY have a web presence, a presence I hope to expand in the coming years, particularly with more interactive tools for data exploration and analysis.

Landsat Launch Success! Incredible View!

Landsat 8, separating from the rocket

The view from the Atlas rocket, towards the just released Landsat 8 satellite. Incredible view, and timing, with the sun appearing behind the "crescent Earth" just moments after satellite separation. Click for a larger view.

Everyone at USGS EROS (Earth Resource Observation and Science) Center had been looking forward to today for a long time…years in fact.  With the Landsat 5 satellite recently decommissioned after an incredible 28 year run…with Landsat 6 somewhere at the bottom of the Pacific, and with Landsat 7 operating with a crippled instrument, USGS EROS, and Earth Science in general, NEEDED a successful Landsat 8 launch.   Today, we got that successful launch.

The “Landsat Data Continuity Mission”, soon to be dubbed “Landsat 8″ once NASA transitions satellite control to the USGS, launched today from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.  Everything has gone flawlessly so far.  No delays in the countdown, great weather, and everything gone perfectly during launch.

Three “goosebump” moments for me today…

1) The final “OK”s from the mission engineers.  One by one, they went through a check of all systems, with each engineer replying with a “Check!!”.  That’s when you knew that after years of planning, you only had a few minutes before actual launch.

2) Actual launch, with multiple views showing the launch from a distance, camera on the rocket, etc.

3) My favorite moment, pictured above…separation of the satellite from the rocket.  The NASA announcer talked about the quiet and tension in the room in the few minutes leading up to this, as satellite separation can be a tricky stage.  Not only does it go flawlessly, but the views from the camera on the rocket, looking towards the satellite as it slowly moves away, were just stunning.  It separated somewhere over Europe, where it was night.  All you could see of the earth was a bright sliver in the distance, like a sliver of a crescent moon.  Then just about 15 seconds after separation, you seen the sun come out from behind the crescent, with the satellite and rocket in the foreground.

AMAZING.  GREAT day for USGS EROS!  Now we just have to hope the satellite checks out as flawlessly as the launch!!

Landsat Satellite Launch – Monday, mid-Day

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

A huge day for my USGS center tomorrow, with the launch of the Landsat 8 mission.

A very big day at work tomorrow (Monday).  I work at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.  We house the world’s largest collection of satellite imagery, providing both data and the science to support the use of the data.  USGS EROS was established 40 years ago, with a carefully selected site in the central part of the nation, to facilitate collection of satellite imagery. 

In 1972, the first “Landsat” satellite was launched.  It marked a milestone in environmental monitoring and assessment, as for the first time, synoptic, broad-scale, consistent observations of the Earth’s surface were available.  Several subsequent Landsat missions have followed, with one mission (Landsat 5) finally ending recently after a remarkable 28 years of continuous data collection (not bad for what was thought to be a 5-year lifespan at most).  Landsat 6, launched in the early 1990s, never achieved orbit and is currently at “home” somewhere at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean.  Landsat 7, a flagship mission for USGS EROS, experienced sensor problems a few years ago, and now collects only partially degraded imagery. 

Tomorrow, Monday, February 11th, at around noon central time, the Landsat Data Continuity Mission lifts off from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.  The mission will officially be termed Landsat 8 after a successful launch and a transition of control t0 USGS.  The mission is a partnership between NASA and USGS, with NASA leading the design, construction, and launch of the satellite.  We at USGS control the mission after launch, collect the data from the satellite, and distribute it to the public.

A big day, not just for USGS EROS, but for Earth Science.  Landsat imagery have been used for countless different applications over the years, and with Landsat 8, we’ll be able to provide the data and science for years to come.  If you get a chance, check out the launch tomorrow on NASA TV.

Scum of the Week – Paul Broun

Paul Broun

Can't we have a simple IQ test before allowing idiots like Paul Broun to run for office?

And people wonder why science in the United States is on the decline…

Republican (did I even need to say that?) Congressman Paul Broun was shown in a video this week, saying “All that stuff I was taught about evolution, embryology, the Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell“.  He goes on to say that the ”earth is but 9,000 years old“.  It’s bad enough that a sitting U.S. Congressman is so incredibly stupid that he would talk like this.  One would HOPE that the political leaders in the U.S. weren’t complete idiots (OK…take a moment and collect yourself until you stop laughing, since obviously many of them are dumber than a stick).

But what’s absolutely dangerous is that this idiot is on the House Committee for Science, Space, and Technology.  A sitting congressman who has a large say in the direction of science and technology policy and funding in the U.S., and he’s a bible-thumpin’ wacko who believes the earth is 9,000 years old.

That should scare the hell out of people.  It’s already been abundantly clear in recent years that conservatives have completely abandoned logic, have completely abandoned science, and frankly, have completely abandoned sanity.

Rep. Broun…you are the recipient of a WELL deserved “Scum of the week” award.

Legislating away climate change

Earth on Fire

Anthropogenic effects on climate change? GONE!! Legislated away by the BRILLIANT (as always) Republicans in the North Carolina legislature. WHY in the hell didn't we think of doing this a long time ago??!!?

I don’t know whether to laugh, or cry.  Sometimes the complete idiocy (and greed) of human beings initiates both reactions at the same time.  Take the case of North Carolina law makers this week…

If you haven’t seen it, take the time to watch Stephen Colbert’s slant to this story.  It seems that a North Carolina coastal economic development group isn’t happy with scientists.  Darn pesky scientists…they had the GALL to predict that sea level rise would be greater than 3 feet by 2100.  It makes it a LOT harder to sell coastal real estate or convince companies to locate on the North Carolina coast, when all the evidence and science in the world points to that land being underwater in 50 or so years.

So…the economic development group has partnered with Republican (of course!) lawmakers in the state to basically outlaw science!!  The businesspeople and Republican lawmakers simply are saying that scientists are wrong, and that you should ONLY look at what’s happened in the past, to predict future climate change.  None of this fretting over CO2 levels that just reached 400 ppm!!  No fretting about accelerating warming in the polar regions that will melt ice like butter in a blast furnace!! Nah….it’s the REAL ESTATE industry that REALLY knows climate science!!!

So, they’re crafting legislation that would effectively legislate away climate change science!  They would make it North Carolina LAW that any climate projections affecting policy in the state would assume that sea-level rise will simply occur at historical levels, and won’t accelerate as global warming ramps up. 

Simple! Problem solved!  We scientist…SO, so silly, worrying about gathering evidence, analyzing the data, and spitting out facts and figures.  All we really need to do is legislate science away!  Think of the possibilities!  What if the Yellowstone caldera should get frisky and threaten to erupt again?  No need for scientists to study it…just pass a law outlawing the volcano from erupting!  Giant asteroid headed on a collision course with earth?  No problem!! Just legislate it away!!

Unbelievable.  It DOES perfectly represent what the Republican Party represents, however.  After all, we CAN’T have science interfere with real estate and business! If science is butting heads with business interests, is there ever ANY doubt on which side of the argument Republicans will land?   We’ve seen this story a hundred times in other forms…fracking and polluting water supplies, endangered species habitat vs. development, air quality vs. power company lobbyists…it’s the same story every time.  What’s so pathetic is that I’m sure Republican VOTERS in North Carolina are swallowing this hook, line, and sinker, and APPLAUDING their hillbilly legislators for this bold move.

To laugh?  Or to cry?  With each move Republicans make like this, it’s getting harder and harder to laugh about it.

Woo-hoo! Another Journal Pub!

Sohl and Sohl - Pine Barrens Land ChangeContinuing what’s been a great year so far, I just had another paper published in a scientific journal.  This one is “Land-Use Change in the Atlantic Coaswtal Pine Barrens Ecoregion”, and it was just published in the journal “Geographic Review“.  

This one is is an interesting one for me, because the co-author is my wife!  I worked on a project looking at satellite imagery and land-use change in the Atlantic Coastal Pine Barrens ecoregion.  It’s an area that covers much of New Jersey, as well as Long Island, Cape Cod, and other immediate areas.  My wife just happened to look at the New Jersey portion of the area for work she did in grad school.

Hence the teaming up and writing a paper for the area!  Click here if you’d like to take a look.

Several exciting reads for you…

Journal Article - Applied GeographyWork has been, well, stressful lately.  We have a big project with a lot of visibility, and with visibility, comes a lot of political pressure.  Thankfully, it’s also been a quite productive time, thanks to the project.  As a scientist, productivity seems to be measured in publications, and it’s been an unprecedented last few months for pubs for me.

So a list of five new pubs that have all come out in the last couple of months, ones I’m sure you’ll all want to pick up!!

A Land-use and Land-cover Modeling Strategy to Support a National Assessment of Carbon Stocks and Fluxes – Terry Sohl, Ben Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu, Kristi Sayler, Stacie Bennett, Michelle Bouchard, Ryan Reker, Todd Hawbaker, Anne Wein, Shuguang Liu, Ron Kanengieter, William Acevedo – A journal article in Applied Geography discussing a strategy we developed to model land-cover change to support the analysis of carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes.

Spatially Explicit Land-use and Land-Cover Scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States – Terry Sohl, Ben Sleeter, Kristi Sayler, Michelle Bouchard, Ryan Reker, Stacie Bennett, Rachel Sleeter, Ron Kanengieter, and Zhiliang Zhu – A journal article in Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment about land-use scenarios and maps we created for the Great Plains.

Contemporary Land-cover Change in the Atlantic Coastal Pine Barrens Ecoregion – Terry Sohl and Lauri SohlA journal article on recent (1973-present) land-cover change in the Pine Barrens ecoregion, covering parts of New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts. No access at the moment, this is supposed to be published any day (in the journal Geographical Review). Kind of cool because my co-author is also my wife!!

Scenarios of Land-use and Land-cover Change in the Conterminous United States: Utilizing the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios at Ecoregional Scales – Ben Sleeter, Terry Sohl, Michelle Bouchard, Ryan Reker, Chris Soulard, William Acevedo, Glenn Griffith, Rachel Sleeter, Roger Auch, Kristi Sayler, Steve Prisley, Zhiliang Zhu – A journal article in Global Environmental Change about the development of a unique set of land-cover scenarios for the U.S. that are consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES scenarios.

Role of Remote Sensing for Land-use and Land-Cover Change Modeling – Terry Sohl and Ben Sleeter – Book Chapter – My first book chapter, which is exciting, but a book chapter ranks quite a bit lower on the scientific “cred” totem pole than a peer-reviewed journal pub.

Good day to be a scientist!!

AGEE PaperIt’s ALWAYS a good day to be a scientist when one of your papers is published in a journal.  Today I had a paper published in the journal Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment.  The paper describes land-cover modeling that was done in the Great Plains of the United States.  We used our own, home-grown modeling framework, “FORE-SCE” (Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change), and projected land-cover change from 2006 out through the year 2100, for 4 different scenarios.

We’re doing the same kind of land-cover modeling for all of the U.S., with a goal of finishing by the end of the year.  The land-cover scenarios we’re producing are being used to look at the impacts of land-cover change on carbon fluxes and other greenhouse gases.  We really have a great team working on this.

Click here to take a look at the paper!   Drop what you’re doing!  Put down that book!  Turn off the TV!  Shut down the computer!  Ignore the family!  This is a paper that’s SURE to keep you riveted to your seat!

Santorum, Science, and Satan

Satan, Academia, and Global Warming

According to Rick Santorum, Satan "took over" academia "long ago". He also says he's the one who is "pro-science". You know, like the science of the Devil actually being the cause of global warming.

Yes, I know this is about the 29th straight post commenting on Rick Santorum.  But c’mon…the man is a walking disaster, and it’s SO easy to poke fun at him.  It’s also damned scary that this man is getting anything close to a sniff of the presidency of the United States.  You KNOW you’re a wacko if Rush Limbaugh is worried about your wackiness, and is warning you to tone it down.

Limbaugh came out with concern about Santorum’s ability to address some of the wackier comments he’s made in his recent past.  In those comments from 2008, Santorum commented on “Satan’s” war on America.  In a speech that sets a standard of wackiness that is amazing even for Santorum, he states that “Satan” has been the “most and first successful” in taking over academia, going on to say that academia fell to Satan “long ago.”

Interesting comment from someone who might be the flag-bearer for the GOP, when just this week, he came out and said that it’s Democrats who are “anti-science”, while Santorum isn’t.   

Sigh. It’s quite depressing to hear the Santorum revelations.  As a scientist, as someone with a strong academic background, I’m a little disappointed to know that all I learned in college was really just Satan spouting off.  I’m a little disappointed to hear that all of the work on climate change that we’ve done at USGS, and indeed within my current project, is one big lie perpetuated by Satan himself.  What are the implications for a liberal, government scientist who contributes to the science of climate change?

I’m going to hell, that much is obvious.  I really had no chance, with both academia, and my chosen profession, seemingly taken over by Satan.  I just take heart that my young son and any future grandchildren have someone as “wise” as Rick Santorum to lead us from the Devil’s influence.